SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Doğu Coğrafya Dergisi / 2026 / Sayı: 55

Possible Changes in Suitable Distribution Areas of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Türkiye Due to the Effects of Global Climate Change

Türkiye’de Sarıçam (Pinus Sylvestris L.) Uygun Yayılış Alanlarının Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Etkileri ile Olası Değişimi

Sevgi Dönmez(Uşak Üniversitesi)0000-0001-8515-0398
Pages
1–11
Publication Date
2026-06-30
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The results indicate that climate change may cause significant habitat loss in a relatively short time.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), one of the most widely distributed species of the Pinaceae family globally, covers approximately 738,000 hectares in Türkiye.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Projections were made under SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 climate scenarios for the years 2060 and 2100.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:The results indicate that climate change may cause significant habitat loss in a relatively short time.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2060 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Küresel iklim değişikliği · sarıçam · GAM

Abstract

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), one of the most widely distributed species of the Pinaceae family globally, covers approximately 738,000 hectares in Türkiye. Its broad distribution makes it vulnerable to population losses due to the impacts of climate change. Predicting shifts in suitable habitats is essential to minimize these potential losses. This study aims to estimate future changes in the suitable distribution areas of Scots pine in Türkiye using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Projections were made under SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 climate scenarios for the years 2060 and 2100. The results indicate that climate change may cause significant habitat loss in a relatively short time. For instance, under the SSPs 245 scenario, more than 19% of suitable areas could be lost by 2060. Therefore, to minimize the population losses, it is recommended to identify the potential effects in advance in order to do the necessary planning and provide the migration mechanism required by the species through human intervention.

Özet

Sarıçam (Pinus sylvestris) dünyada Pinaceae ailesinin en geniş alanlarda yayılış gösteren üyesi olup, Türkiye’de 738.000 hektar alan kaplamaktadır. Geniş alanlarda yayılış göstermesi, türü küresel iklim değişikliğinin etkileri ile geniş alanlarda populasyon kaybı riskine açık hale getirmektedir. Küresel iklim değişikliği sürecinde bu kayıpları en aza indirebilmek için, türlerin uygun yayılış alanlarındaki değişikliklerin tahmin edilerek, gerekli tedbirlerin alınması önemlidir. Bu çalışmada da sarıçamın Türkiye’deki uygun yayılış alanlarının nasıl değişeceği belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında türün uygun yayılış alanları GAM (Generalized Additive Model) modeli kullanılarak SSPs 245 ve SSPs 585 senaryolarına göre değerlendirilmiş, 2060 ve 2100 yıllarına kadar olan süreçteki değişimleri tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma sonuçları, sürecin etkilerinin kısa sürede ve oldukça yıkıcı olacağını, örneğin SSPs 245 senaryosuna göre 2060 yılına kadar %19’u aşan oranda bir kayıp yaşanabileceğini göstermektedir. Bundan dolayı populasyon kayıplarını en aza indirebilmek için, olası etkilerin önceden belirlenerek gerekli planlama çalışmalarının yapılması ve türün ihtiyaç duyduğu göç mekanizmasının insan eliyle sağlanması önerilmektedir.

🔖

Cite This Article

Dönmez, S. (2026). Possible Changes in Suitable Distribution Areas of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Türkiye Due to the Effects of Global Climate Change. Doğu Coğrafya Dergisi, Sayı: 55, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.17295/ataunidcd.1753936

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (61)

  1. Anadolu Ajansı. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/turkiye/saricam-ormanlari-sonbaharda-buyuluyor-/948143 (Erişim tarihi: 04.01.2026)
  2. Ardahan Haber. https://www.ardahanhaber.com.tr/saricam-agaci-ardahan--8217-a-hava-katiyor/6024 (Erişim tarihi: 04.01.2026)
  3. Aricak, B., Canturk, U., Koc, I., Erdem, R., & Sevik, H. (2024). Shifts that may appear in climate classifications in Bursa due to global climate change. Forestist. 74(2) 129-137. https://doi.org/10.5152/forestist.2024.23074
  4. Arslan, E.S, & Örücü, K. Ö (2019). Present and future potential distribution of the Pinus nigra Arnold. and Pinus sylvestris L. using Maxent Model. International Journal of Ecosystems & Ecology Sciences, 9(4). 787-798
  5. Atalay, İ. (1994). Türkiye vejetasyon coğrafyası. Ege Üniversitesi Basımevi.
  6. Atalay, İ. (2011). Türkiye’nin ekolojik bölgeleri. META Basım
  7. Avcı, M. (2017). Bitki coğrafyası. İstanbul Üniversitesi Açık ve Uzaktan Eğitim Fakültesi. İstanbul Üniversitesi AUZEF.
  8. Bayraktar, O. Y., Özel, H. B., Benli, A., Yılmazoğlu, M. U., Türkel, İ., Dal, B. B., Şevik, H. & Kaplan, G. (2024). Sustainable foam concrete development: Enhancing durability and performance through pine cone powder and fly ash incorporation in alkali-activated geopolymers. Construction and Building Materials, 457, 139422.
  9. Cantürk, U., Koç, İ., Özel, H. B., & Şevik, H. (2024). Possible changes of Pinus nigra distribution regions in Türkiye with the impacts of global climate change. BioResources, 19(3), 6190- 6214. https://doi.org/10.15376/biores.19.3.6190-6214
  10. Çobanoglu, H., Sevik, H., & Koç, İ. (2023). Do annual rings really reveal Cd, Ni, and Zn pollution in the air related to traffic density? An example of the cedar tree. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution, 234(2), 65. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-023-06457-8
  11. Çobanoglu, H., Canturk, U., Koç, İ., Kulaç, Ş., & Sevik, H. (2023). Climate change effect on potential distribution of Anatolian chestnut (Castanea sativa mill.) in the upcoming century in Türkiye. Forestist, 73(3). https://doi.org/10.5152/forestist.2023.22065
  12. Dogan, S., Kilicoglu, C., Akinci, H., Sevik, H., & Cetin, M. (2023). Determining the suitable settlement areas in Alanya with GIS-based site selection analyses. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(11), 29180-29189.
  13. Erdem, R., Koç, İ., Çobanoğlu, H., & Şevik, H. (2024). Variation of magnesium, one of the macronutrients, in some trees based on organs and species. Forestist, 74(1), 84–93.
  14. Ertugrul, M., Ozel, H. B., Varol, T., Cetin, M., & Sevik, H. (2019). Investigation of the relationship between burned areas and climate factors in large forest fires in the Çanakkale region. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 191, 1–12.
  15. Ertürk, N., Aricak, B., Sevik, H., & Yigit, N. (2024b). Possible change in distribution areas of Abies in Kastamonu due to global climate change. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty, 24(1), 81-91.
  16. ESRI 2017. ArcGIS Desktop: Release 10.5. Redlands, CA: Environmental Systems Research Institute.
  17. Fyllas, N. M., Koufaki, T., Sazeides, C. I., Spyroglou, G., & Theodorou, K. (2022). Potential impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of the dominant tree species in Greece. Plants, 11(12), 1616. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants11121616
  18. Gómez‐Pineda, E., Sáenz‐Romero, C., Ortega‐Rodríguez, J. M., Blanco‐García, A., Madrigal‐Sánchez, X., Lindig‐Cisneros, R.,. & Rehfeldt, G. E. (2020). Suitable climatic habitat changes for Mexican conifers along altitudinal gradients under climatic change scenarios. Ecological Applications, 30(2), e02041. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2041
  19. Guney, K., Cetin, M., Sevik, H., & Güney, K. B. (2016). Effects of some hormone applications on germination and morphological characters of endangered plant. New Challenges in Seed Biology: Basic and Translational Research Driving Seed Technology, 97.
  20. Gültekin, Y., Kılıç Bayraktar, M., Sevik, H., Cetin, M., & Bayraktar, T. (2025) Optimal vegetable selection in urban and rural areas using artificial bee colony algorithm: Heavy metal assessment and health risk, Journal of Food Composition and Analysis, 139, Article ID: 107169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfca.2024.107169
  21. Günal, N. (1997). Türkiye’de başlıca ağaç türlerinin coğrafi yayılışları, ekolojik ve floristik özellikleri. Çantay Kitabevi.
  22. Güney, D., Atar, F., Turna, İ., & Bayraktar, A. (2022). Morphogenetic variations of Pinus sylvestris L. seedlings depending on altitude. Ormancılık Araştırma Dergisi, 10(1), 80-89.
  23. Hrivnák, M., Krajmerová, D., Paule, L., Zhelev, P., Sevik, H., Ivanković, M., Goginashvili, N., Paule, J., & Gömöry, D. (2024). Are there hybrid zones in Fagus sylvatica L. sensu lato?. European Journal of Forest Research, 143, 451–464. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-023-01634-0
  24. Isinkaralar, K., Isinkaralar, O., Koç, İ., Şevik, H., & Özel, H. B. (2025b). Atmospheric trace metal exposure in a 60-year-old wood: A sustainable methodological approach to measurement of dry deposition. International Journal of Environmental Research, 19(4), 1-14.
  25. Isinkaralar, K., Isinkaralar, O., Özel, H. B., & Şevik, H. (2024a). A comparative study about physical properties of copper oxide and zinc oxide nanoparticles on Fagus orientalis L. as bioindicator. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution, 235(11), 738.
  26. Isinkaralar, O., Isinkaralar, K., & Sevik, H. (2025c). Health for the future: Spatiotemporal CA-MC modeling and spatial pattern prediction via dendrochronological approach for nickel and lead deposition. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, 1-13.
  27. Isinkaralar, O., Isinkaralar, K., Sevik, H., & Küçük, Ö. (2024b). Spatial modeling the climate change risk of river basins via climate classification: A scenario-based prediction approach for Türkiye. Natural Hazards, 120(1), 511-528.
  28. Isinkaralar, O., Isinkaralar, K., Sevik, H., & Küçük, Ö. (2025a). Thermal comfort modeling, aspects of land use in urban planning and spatial exposition under future climate parameters. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 1-14.
  29. İpek, G. G., Aras, S., Arslan, N. & Mutlu, E. (2024). Evaluation of freshwater water quality with indexes and GIS-based: A case study, Güren Stream (Küre Mountains National Park, Western Black Sea Basin, Turkey). Water Resources, 51(3), 332-343.
  30. Karahan, S. (2025). Muş’da küresel iklim değişikliğinin etkisiyle sıcaklık, yağış ve bunlara bağlı olarak iklim tiplerinde meydana gelebilecek değişiklikler. Memba Su Bilimleri Dergisi, 11(1), 84-95.
  31. Kenar, N. (2024). Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic range of the Mediterranean relict tree Liquidambar orientalis Mill. Nordic Journal of Botany, 2024(7), e04250.
  32. Key, K., Kulaç, Ş., Koç, İ., & Sevik, H. (2023). Proof of concept to characterize historical heavy-metal concentrations in atmosphere in North Turkey: Determining the variations of Ni, Co, and Mn concentrations in 180-year-old Corylus colurna L. (Turkish hazelnut) annual rings. Acta Physiologiae Plantarum, 45(10), 120.
  33. Koc, I., Canturk, U., Cobanoglu, H., Kulac, S., Key, K., & Sevik, H. (2025a). Assessment of 40-year Al deposition in some exotic conifer species in the urban air of Düzce, Türkiye. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution, 236(2), 1-14.
  34. Koc, I., Canturk, U., Isinkaralar, K., Ozel, H. B., & Sevik, H. (2024a). Assessment of metals (Ni, Ba) deposition in plant types and their organs at Mersin City, Türkiye. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 196(3), 282.
  35. Koc, I., Cobanoglu, H., Canturk, U., Key, K., Kulac, S., & Sevik, H. (2024b). Change of Cr concentration from past to present in areas with elevated air pollution. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 21(2), 2059-2070.
  36. Koc, I., Cobanoglu, H., Canturk, U., Key, K., Sevik, H., & Kulac, S. (2025b). Variation of 40-year Pb deposition in some conifers grown in the air-polluted-urban area of Düzce, Türkiye. Environmental Earth Sciences, 84(7), 186.
  37. Kravkaz-Kuscu, I. S., Sariyildiz, T., Cetin, M., Yigit, N., Sevik, H., & Savaci, G. (2018). Evaluation of the soil properties and primary forest tree species in Taskopru (Kastamonu) district. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 27(3), 1613-1617.
  38. Kuzmina, N., Menshchikov, S., Mohnachev, P., Zavyalov, K., Petrova, I., Ozel, H. B., Aricak, B., Onat, S. M., & Sevik, H. (2023). Change of aluminum concentrations in specific plants by species, organ, washing, and traffic density, BioResources 18(1), 792-803.
  39. Mutlu, E., & Aydın Uncumusaoğlu, A. (2018). Analysis of spatial and temporal water pollution patterns in Terzi Pond (Kastamonu/Turkey) by using multivariate statistical methods. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 27(5), 2900-2912.
  40. Örücü, Ö. K., & Hoşgör, E. (2022). Karayemiş’in (Prunus laurocerasus L.) iklim değişikliği senaryolarına göre günümüz ve gelecekteki yayılış alanlarının analizi. TÜCAUM 2022 Uluslararası Coğrafya Sempozyumu, 12-14 Ekim 2022, Ankara.
  41. Özel, H. B., Şevik, H., Yıldız, Y., & Çobanoğlu, H. (2024). Effects of silver nanoparticles on germination and seedling characteristics of Oriental Beech (Fagus orientalis) seeds. BioResources, 19(2), 2135-2148.
  42. Pamay, B. (1962), Türkiye’de Sarıçam (Pinus silvestris L.)’ın tabii gençleşmesi imkanları üzerine araştırmalar. T. C. Orman Bakanlığı Orman Genel Müdürlüğü Yayını, Sıra No: 337, Seri No: 31, İstanbul.
  43. Reichmuth, A., Kühn, I., Schmidt, A., & Doktor, D. (2025). Forested Natura 2000 sites under climate change: Effects of tree species distribution shifts. Web Ecology, 25(1), 59-89.
  44. Saatçioğlu, F. (1969). Silvikültür I: Silvikültürün biyolojik esasları ve prensipleri. İstanbul Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Yayınları.
  45. Sevik, H., & Topacoglu, O. (2015). Variation and inheritance pattern in cone and seed characteristics of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) for evaluation of genetic diversity. Journal of Environmental Biology, 36(5), 1125-1130.
  46. Sevik, H., Cetin, M., Ozturk, A., Yigit, N., & Karakus, O. (2019). Changes in micromorphological characters of Platanus orientalis L. leaves in Turkey. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 17(3), 5909-5921.
  47. Sevik, H., Koç, İ., & Cobanoglu, H. (2024). Determination of some exotic landscape species as biomonitors that can be used for monitoring and reducing Pd pollution in the air. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution, 235(10), 615.
  48. Sevik, H., Yahyaoglu, Z., & Turna, I. (2012). Determination of genetic variation between populations of Abies nordmanniana subsp. bornmulleriana Mattf according to some seed characteristics, genetic diversity in plants. Chapter, 12, 231-248.
  49. Shi, J., Xia, M., He, G., Gonzalez, N. C., Zhou, S., Lan, K.,. & Li, H. (2024). Predicting Quercus gilva distribution dynamics and its response to climate change induced by GHGs emission through MaxEnt modeling. Journal of Environmental Management, 357, 120841.
  50. Şimşek, A., & Mutlu, E. (2023). Assessment of the water quality of Bartın Kışla (Kozcağız) Dam by using geographical information system (GIS) and water quality indices (WQI). Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(20), 58796-58812.
  51. Tandoğan, M., Özel, H. B., Gözet, F. T., & Şevik, H. (2023). Determining the taxol contents of yew tree populations in western Black Sea and Marmara regions and analyzing some forest stand characteristics. BioResources, 18(2), 3496-3508.
  52. Tokatli, C., Mutlu, E., Ustaoğlu, F., Islam, A. R. T., & Muhammad, S. (2024). Spatiotemporal variations, health risk assessment, and sources of potentially toxic elements in potamic water of the Anday Stream Basin (Türkiye), Black Sea Region. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 196(5), 420.
  53. Türkeş, M. (2010). Küresel iklim değişikliği ve Türkiye: Beklenen değişiklikler ve olası etkiler. Çevre ve Orman Bakanlığı Yayınları.
  54. Uncumusaoğlu, A. A., & Mutlu, E. (2021). Water quality assessment in Karaboğaz Stream Basin (Turkey) from a multi-statistical perspective. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 30(5), 4747-4759.
  55. Wouyou, H. G., Lokonon, B. E., Idohou, R., Zossou-Akete, A. G., Assogbadjo, A. E., & Kakaï, R. G. (2022). Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered Caesalpinia bonduc (L.) Roxb in Benin (West Africa). Heliyon, 8(3). e09022.
  56. Wu, R. R., Liu, M. Z., Gu, X., Chang, X. Y., Guo, L. Y., Jiang, G. M., & Qi, R. Y. (2024). Prediction of suitable habitat distribution and potential impact of climate change on distribution patterns of Cupressus gigantea. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 48(4), 445-458.
  57. Yigit, N., Çetin, M., Ozturk, A., Sevik, H., & Cetin, S. (2019). Varitation of stomatal characteristics in broad leaved species based on habitat. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 17(6), 12859-12868.
  58. Yigit, N., Mutevelli, Z., Sevik, H., Onat, S. M., Ozel, H. B., Cetin, M., & Olgun, C. (2021). Identification of some fiber characteristics in Rosa sp. and Nerium oleander L. wood grown under different ecological conditions. BioResources, 16(3), 5862.
  59. Yigit, N., Öztürk, A., Sevik, H., Özel, H. B., Ramadan Kshkush, F. E., & Işık, B. (2023). Clonal variation based on some morphological and micromorphological characteristics in the Boyabat (Sinop/Turkey) black pine (Pinus nigra subsp. pallasiana (Lamb.) Holmboe) seed orchard. BioResources, 18(3).
  60. Gómez‐Pineda, E., Sáenz‐Romero, C., Ortega‐Rodríguez, J. M., Blanco‐García, A., Madrigal‐Sánchez, X., Lindig‐Cisneros, R.,. & Rehfeldt, G. E. (2020). Suitable climatic habitat changes for Mexican conifers along altitudinal gradients under climatic change scenarios. Ecological Applications, 30(2), e02041. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2041
  61. Shi, J., Xia, M., He, G., Gonzalez, N. C., Zhou, S., Lan, K.,. & Li, H. (2024). Predicting Quercus gilva distribution dynamics and its response to climate change induced by GHGs emission through MaxEnt modeling. Journal of Environmental Management, 357, 120841.