Dergiler / Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty / 2022 / Cilt: 9 Sayı: 3

ÜÇÜZ AÇIK BASKI ENDEKSİ VE FİNANSAL KRİZLERİN TAHMİNİ: TÜRKİYE UYGULAMASI

TRIPLE DEFICIT PRESSURE INDEX AND ESTIMATION OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Sayfa
1507–1521
Yayın Tarihi
2022-11-29
DOI
—
🏛️Bu makalenin bibliyografik verileri ve tam metin bağlantısı DergiPark üzerinden sağlanmıştır.
DergiPark Kaydı ↗
✨

Yapay Zeka Hızlı Bakış & Çıkarımlar

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

In addition, there is one-way Granger causality for the Trıple Defıcıt Pressure Index.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:The main indicators affecting short and longterm macroeconomic stability are budget deficits, current account deficit and savings deficits expressed as savings-investment imbalance.
📊
Temel Bulgular & Veri:The main purpose of this study is to create a Triple Deficit Pressure Index for Turkey in 1998 - 2019 period.
💡
Sonuç & Katkı:In addition, there is one-way Granger causality for the Trıple Defıcıt Pressure Index.
🔬Tür:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Kapsam:2019 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Finansal Kriz · Üçüz Açık Baskı Endeksi · Modelleme

Özet

The main indicators affecting short and longterm macroeconomic stability are budget deficits, current account deficit and savings deficits expressed as savings-investment imbalance. In the literature of Economics and Finance, there are many national and international studies on Twin Deficits Hypothesis. The triple deficit is also the balance of imbalance. The Triple Deficit Hypothesis is based on the relationship between the budget balance expressed as internal balance and the balance of savings and the current account balance representing the external balance. The main purpose of this study is to create a Triple Deficit Pressure Index for Turkey in 1998 - 2019 period. In addition, leading indicators that cause financial crises are investigated using the Triple Deficit Pressure Index. The study proves that Triple Deficit Pressure Index is valid in Turkey. In addition, there is one-way Granger causality for the Trıple Defıcıt Pressure Index.

Abstract

The main indicators affecting short and longterm macroeconomic stability are budget deficits, current account deficit and savings deficits expressed as savings-investment imbalance. In the literature of Economics and Finance, there are many national and international studies on Twin Deficits Hypothesis. The triple deficit is also the balance of imbalance. The Triple Deficit Hypothesis is based on the relationship between the budget balance expressed as internal balance and the balance of savings and the current account balance representing the external balance. The main purpose of this study is to create a Triple Deficit Pressure Index for Turkey in 1998 - 2019 period. In addition, leading indicators that cause financial crises are investigated using the Triple Deficit Pressure Index. The study proves that Triple Deficit Pressure Index is valid in Turkey. In addition, there is one-way Granger causality for the Trıple Defıcıt Pressure Index.

🔖

Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

AKKAYA, M. (2022). ÜÇÜZ AÇIK BASKI ENDEKSİ VE FİNANSAL KRİZLERİN TAHMİNİ: TÜRKİYE UYGULAMASI. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 3, 1507–1521. https://ajindex.com/articles/966579

📄 Tam Metin PDF Okuyucu

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

Kaynakça (16)

  1. AKBAŞ, Y. E., Fuat, L. E. B. E., & ZEREN, F. (2014). Testing the validity of the triplet deficit hypothesis for Turkey: Asymmetric causality analysis. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 7(14), 137-154.
  2. Akıncı, M. & Yılmaz Ö. (2013). Türkiye ekonomisinde üçüz açık hipotezinin geçerliliği: Sınır testi yaklaşımı. İMKB Dergisi, 13(50), 1-27.
  3. Andersen, P. S. (1990). Developments in External and Internal Balances: A Selective and Eclectic Review. BIS Economic Papers, 29, Bank for International Settlements. Bachman, D. D. (1992). Why is the US Current Account Deficit So Large? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions. Southern Economic Journal, 59(2), 232-240.
  4. Bayrak, M. & Esen, Ö. (2012). Bütçe Açıklarının Cari İşlemler Dengesi Üzerine Etkileri: ikiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye Açısından Değerlendirilmesi. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 23(82): 23-49.
  5. Barro, R.J. (1974), Are Government Bonds Net Wealth. The Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095-1117.
  6. Barro, R. J. (1989). The Ricardian approach to budget deficits. Journal of Economic perspectives, 3(2), 37-54.
  7. Bolat, S., Belke, M. & Aras, O. (2011). Türkiye'de ikiz Açık Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Maliye Dergisi, 161: 347-364.
  8. Bolat, S., Değirmen, S. & Şengönül, A. (2014). Does Triple Deficits Have (Un)Stable Causality for the EU Members? Evidence from Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Tests. Procedia Economics and Finance, 16: 603-612.
  9. Chowdhury, K. & Saleh, A. S. (2007). Testing the Keynesian Proposition ofTwin Deficits in the Presence of Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from Sri Lanka. Faculty of Business Economics Working Papers, 2-35.
  10. Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica. Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  11. Dooley, M.P., Frankel, J.A. and Mathieson, D. (1987). nternational Capital Mobility in Developing Countries vs. Industrial Countries: What do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us? NBER Working Papers, 2043,
  12. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 503-530.
  13. Eichengreen, B., Rose, A. K., & Wyplosz, C. (1996). Contagious currency crises. No. w5681, National Bureau of Economic Research. Eğilmez, M. (2012).
  14. İkiz Açık, Üçüz Açık. http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2012/10/ikiz-ack-ucuz-ack.html.
  15. Feldstein, M. S. (1986). The budget deficit and the dollar. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1, 355-392.
  16. Feldstein, M. (1992). Analysis: the budget and trade deficits aren’t really twins. Challenge, 35(2), 60-63. Fr