Dergiler / Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics / 2019 / Cilt: 48 - Sayı: 6

ATA Method

Sayfa
1838–1844
Yayın Tarihi
2022-10-18
DOI
—
🏛️Bu makalenin bibliyografik verileri ve tam metin bağlantısı DergiPark üzerinden sağlanmıştır.
DergiPark Kaydı ↗
✨

Yapay Zeka Hızlı Bakış & Çıkarımlar

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Using the results from the M3-competition, the forecasting performance of this method will be compared to not only these two major approaches but also to other successful methods derived from these two approaches with respect to simplicity and cost in addition to accuracy.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:In this study, the forecasting accuracy of a new forecasting method that is alternative to two major forecasting approaches: exponential smoothing (ES) and ARIMA, will be evaluated.
📊
Temel Bulgular & Veri:In this study, the forecasting accuracy of a new forecasting method that is alternative to two major forecasting approaches: exponential smoothing (ES) and ARIMA, will be evaluated.
💡
Sonuç & Katkı:Using the results from the M3-competition, the forecasting performance of this method will be compared to not only these two major approaches but also to other successful methods derived from these two approaches with respect to simplicity and cost in addition to accuracy.
🔬Tür:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:Exponential smoothing · Forecasting · Initial value

Abstract

In this study, the forecasting accuracy of a new forecasting method that is alternative to two major forecasting approaches: exponential smoothing (ES) and ARIMA, will be evaluated. Using the results from the M3-competition, the forecasting performance of this method will be compared to not only these two major approaches but also to other successful methods derived from these two approaches with respect to simplicity and cost in addition to accuracy.

🔖

Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Yapar, G., Selamlar, H. T., Capar, S., Yavuz, İ. (2022). ATA Method. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, Cilt: 48 - Sayı: 6, 1838–1844. https://ajindex.com/articles/530146

📄 Tam Metin PDF Okuyucu

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

Kaynakça (19)

  1. S. Makridakis and M. Hibon, The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications, Int. J. Forecast, 16 (4), 451–476, 2000
  2. J. De Gooijer and R. Hyndman, 25 years of IIF time series forecasting: A selective review, Int. J. Forecast, 22 (3), 443–473, 2006
  3. P. Goodwin, The holt-winters approach to exponential smoothing: 50 years old and going strong, Foresight, 19, 30–33, 2010
  4. R. Hyndman, A. Koehler, R. Snyder and S. Grose, A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods, Int. J. Forecast, 13 (3), 439–454, 2002
  5. R. Hyndman, A. Koehler, J. Ord and R. Snyder, Forecasting with exponential smoothing: the state space approach, Springer-Verlag, 2008
  6. R. Hyndman and G. Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: principles and practice, OTexts, 2014
  7. C. Pegels, On startup or learning curves: An expanded view, AIIE Transactions, 1 (3), 216–222, 1969
  8. E. Gardner Jr and E. McKenzie, Forecasting trends in time series, Management Science, 31 (10), 1237–1246, 1985
  9. S. Makridakis, A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen and R. Winkler, The forecasting accuracy of major time series methods, Wiley, 1984
  10. A. Koning, P. Franses, M. Hibon abd H. Stekler, The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results, Int. J. Forecast, 21 (3), 397–409, 2005
  11. V. Assimakopoulos and K. Nikolopoulos, The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting, Int. J. Forecast, 16 (4), 521–430, 2000
  12. R. Hyndman and B. Billah, Unmasking the Theta method, Int. J. Forecast, 19 (2), 287–290, 2003
  13. J. Bates and C. Granger, The combination of forecasts, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 20 (4), 451–468, 1969
  14. R. Clemen, Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography, Int. J. Forecast, 5 (4), 559–583, 1989
  15. J. Armstrong, Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?, Int. J. Forecast, 5 (4), 585–588, 1989
  16. J. Armstrong, Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners, Springer Science & Business Media, 2001
  17. S. Makridakis and R. Winkler, Averages of forecasts: Some empirical results, Management Science, 29 (9), 987–996, 1983
  18. S. Makridakis, A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen and R. Winkler, The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition, J. Forecast., 1 (2), 111–153, 1982
  19. R. Cleveland