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AI InsightWe have also inferred that if the decreasing trend of ODSscontinues with the same rate in the coming decades, the ozone column will increase by 9–10% and the ozonelevel will return to its pre-1980 level by the year 2030.
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Özet
The global ozone layer has been continuously depleted in the last few decades due to the anthropogenicemissions of the ozone depleting substances (ODSs). This has created major concern for the ecosystem as well asmankind. This points to the need to examine the influence of each individual ODS in order to estimate how thisburden can change in the future. To that end, we have analysed 52 years (1965–2017) data of the ozone depletingsubstances using the Box-Jenkins model, and have predicted the future trend of the ODSs until the year2030. On the basis of the relationship between the trend in variations of the ozone depleting substances and thetotal ozone column, we have established that how much of the recent ozone increment is attributable to theconcentration of the ozone depleting substances. By using the above mentioned model, we have estimated thatthe present atmospheric abundance of chlorine and bromine is about 3325 and 14.3 parts per trillion (ppt)respectively and have calculated that the atmospheric abundance of these substances will reduce to values of3217 ppt (∼3.2%) and 13.1 ppt (∼8.3%) respectively. We have also inferred that if the decreasing trend of ODSscontinues with the same rate in the coming decades, the ozone column will increase by 9–10% and the ozonelevel will return to its pre-1980 level by the year 2030.