Dergiler / Gazi University Journal of Science / 2016 / Cilt: 29 - Sayı: 2

Comparing Energy Demand Estimation Using Various Statistical Methods: The Case of Turkey

Sayfa
237–244
Yayın Tarihi
2016-06-20
DOI
—
🏛️Bu makalenin bibliyografik verileri ve tam metin bağlantısı DergiPark üzerinden sağlanmıştır.
DergiPark Kaydı ↗
✨

Yapay Zeka Hızlı Bakış & Çıkarımlar

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Since, RR give better estimation, we estimate Turkey’s future energy demand based on RR method.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:Many engineers and scientists concern with future energy demand.
📊
Temel Bulgular & Veri:They use many different statistical methods to estimate future energy demand such as multiple linear regression, neural networks, genetic algorithms and so on.
💡
Sonuç & Katkı:Since, RR give better estimation, we estimate Turkey’s future energy demand based on RR method.
🔬Tür:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:: Energy Demand · Energy Modeling · Biased Regression

Abstract

Many engineers and scientists concern with future energy demand. They use many different statistical methods to estimate future energy demand such as multiple linear regression, neural networks, genetic algorithms and so on. In this paper, we propose ridge regression (RR) and partial least squares regression (PLSR) methods to estimate future energy demand. Because of the fact that variables, which are used in energy demand, are very collinear, ridge regression and partial least squares regression methods give more realistic results than least squares regression method. So, energy demand equations are developed based on RR and PLSR methods. Since, RR give better estimation, we estimate Turkey’s future energy demand based on RR method.

🔖

Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Bulut, Y. M., Yıldız, Z. (2016). Comparing Energy Demand Estimation Using Various Statistical Methods: The Case of Turkey. Gazi University Journal of Science, Cilt: 29 - Sayı: 2, 237–244. https://ajindex.com/articles/255442

📄 Tam Metin PDF Okuyucu

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

Kaynakça (14)

  1. Ceylan, H and Öztürk, H. K. 2004. Estimating energy demand of Turkey based on economic indicators using genetic algorithm approach. Energy Conversion and Management 45: 2525- 2537. Sözen, A., Arcaklıoğlu, E., Özalp, M. and Çağlar, N. 2005. Forecasting based on neural network approach of solar potential in Turkey. Renewable Energy 30: 1075-1090.
  2. Kıran, M. S., Özceylan, E., Gündüz M. and Paksoy, T. 2012. A novel hybrid approach based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Ant Colony Algorithm to forecast energy demand of Turkey. Energy Conversion and Management 53: 75-83.
  3. Ünler, A. 2008. Improvement of energy demand forecast using swarm intelligence: The case of Turkey with projections to 2025. Energy Policy 36: 1937-1944.
  4. Toksarı, M. D. 2007. Ant colony optimization approach to estimate energy demand in Turkey. Energy Policy 35: 3984-3990.
  5. Öztürk, H. K. and Ceylan H. 2005. Forecasting total and industrial sector electricity demand based on genetic algorithm approach: Turkey case study. International Journal of Energy Research 29: 829- 840. Ebohan, O. J. 1996. Energy, economic growth and casuality in developing countries: a case study of Tanzania and Nigeria. Energy Policy 24: 447-453.
  6. Dinçer, I. and Dost, S. 1997. Energy and GDP. International Journal of Energy Research 21(2): 153-167.
  7. Ediger, V. Ş. and Tatlıdil, H. 2002. Forecasting the primary energy demand in Turkey and analysis of cyclic patterns. Energy Conversion and Management 43: 473-487.
  8. Aras, H. and Aras, N. 2004. Forecasting residential natural gas demand. Energy Sources 26: 463-472.
  9. Ediger, V. Ş., Akar, S. and Uğurlu, B. 2006. Forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in Turkey using a comparative regression and ARIMA model. Energy Policy 34: 3836-3846.
  10. Sözen, A., Arcaklıoğlu, E. and Özkaymak, M. 2005. Modelling of the Turkey’s net energy consumption using artificial neural network. International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology 22(2/3): 130-136.
  11. Murat, Y. S. and Ceylan, H. 2006. Use of artificial neural Networks for transport energy demand modelling. Energy Policy 34: 3165-3172.
  12. Canyurt, O. E., Ceylan, H., Öztürk, H. K. and Hepbaşlı, A. 2004. Energy demand estimation based on two-different genetic algorithm approaches. Energy Sources 26: 1313-1320.
  13. Haldenbilen, S. and Ceylan, H. 2005. Genetic algorithm approach to estimate transport energy demand in Turkey. Energy Policy 33: 89-98.
  14. Ceylan, H., Öztürk, H. K., Hepbaşlı, A. and Utlu, Z. 2005. Estimating energy and exergy production a