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Adaptif Piyasalar Hipotezinin Türk Devlet Bankalarında Test Edilmesi

Testing the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis in Turkish State Banks

Gökhan Güven(İSKENDERUN TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ, DÖRTYOL MESLEK YÜKSEKOKULU)0000-0002-2877-2497
Mehmet Cihangir(Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi İşletme Bölümü)0000-0002-3375-6408
Sayfa
536–550
Yayın Tarihi
2026-10-01
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Elde edilen bulgular incelenen hisse senedi piyasasının farklı etkinlik seviyelerinden geçtiğini göstermektedir.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:Bu çalışma, Türk devlet bankaları (Vakıfbank, Halkbank, Ziraat GYO) hisse senedi piyasalarında, geleneksel teorilere alternatif olarak geliştirilen Adaptif Piyasalar Hipotezi’nin varlığını araştırmaktadır.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Veri aralığı, Vakıfbank ve Halkbank için 01 Ocak 2014-31 Aralık 2024, Ziraat GYO için 28 Nisan 2021-31 Aralık 2024’tür.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Elde edilen bulgular incelenen hisse senedi piyasasının farklı etkinlik seviyelerinden geçtiğini göstermektedir.
🔬Tür:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Kapsam:2014 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Adaptif Piyasalar Hipotezi · Piyasa Öngörülebilirliği · Türk Devlet Bankaları

Özet

Bu çalışma, Türk devlet bankaları (Vakıfbank, Halkbank, Ziraat GYO) hisse senedi piyasalarında, geleneksel teorilere alternatif olarak geliştirilen Adaptif Piyasalar Hipotezi’nin varlığını araştırmaktadır. Veri aralığı, Vakıfbank ve Halkbank için 01 Ocak 2014-31 Aralık 2024, Ziraat GYO için 28 Nisan 2021-31 Aralık 2024’tür. Çalışmada günlük getiri verilerinin öngörülebilirliğinin zamana bağlı olarak nasıl değiştiğini incelemek için Dominguez-Lobato ve Chow-Denning testleri 360 günlük kayan pencere yöntemiyle uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular incelenen hisse senedi piyasasının farklı etkinlik seviyelerinden geçtiğini göstermektedir. Özellikle bazı dönemlerde piyasa getirilerinin öngörülebilirliği artarken, diğer dönemlerde rastlantısal bir yapıya yaklaştığı gözlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, piyasa etkinliğinin zaman içinde değiştiğini ve Adaptif Piyasalar Hipotezi ile uyumlu olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Abstract

This study investigates whether Turkish state banks (Vakıfbank, Halkbank, Ziraat GYO) exhibit adaptive behavior in their stock markets, considering the Adaptive Market Hypothesis developed as an alternative to traditional theories. The data spans from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2024, for Vakıfbank and Halkbank, and from April 28, 2021, to December 31, 2024, for Ziraat GYO. In the study, the Dominguez-Lobato and Chow-Denning tests were applied using a 360-day rolling window approach to examine how the predictability of daily return data changes over time. The findings indicate that the stock market under review has undergone different levels of activity. It has been observed that market returns become more predictable during certain periods, while during other periods they tend to be more random. These results demonstrate that market efficiency changes over time and is consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Güven, G., Cihangir, M. (2026). Adaptif Piyasalar Hipotezinin Türk Devlet Bankalarında Test Edilmesi. Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 536–550. https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.1864209

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