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Daha fazla ekonomik büyüme beraberinde çevresel iyileşmeyi getirir mi? NOx ve SOx emisyonları için EKC hipotezinin sınanması

Does Greater Economic Growth Lead to Environmental Improvement? Testing the EKC Hypothesis for NOₓ and SOₓ Emissions

Elif Asoy(İSTANBUL AYDIN ÜNİVERSİTESİ, ANADOLU BİL MESLEK YÜKSEKOKULU)0000-0003-1985-7402
Sayfa
109–146
Yayın Tarihi
2026-02-18
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Model tahmininden elde edilen bulgulara göre ekonomik büyüme emisyonları azaltmaktadır.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:Ekonomik büyümenin çevre üzerindeki etkisi hususunda tartışmalar bir fikir birliğine varılmaksızın devam etmektedir.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:AB-27 ülkeye ait veri üzerinden uygulanan Driscoll Kraay modeline göre EKC hipotezinin geçerliliğine dair bir kanıt bulunamamaktadır.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Model tahmininden elde edilen bulgulara göre ekonomik büyüme emisyonları azaltmaktadır.
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:Ekonomik büyüme · hava kirliliği · Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi

Özet

Ekonomik büyümenin çevre üzerindeki etkisi hususunda tartışmalar bir fikir birliğine varılmaksızın devam etmektedir. Ana akım ekseninde katı bir bakış açısına göre ekonomik büyümenin bir öncül olarak gösterilmesi abartılı ve yersizdir. Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (Environmental Kuznets Curve-EKC) hipotezi gibi ampirik kanıtlar sağlayan yaklaşımlarla bu görüş desteklenmektedir. Bu çalışmada ise EKC’nin geçerliliği NOx ve SOx emisyonları kullanılarak yeniden sınanmaktadır. AB-27 ülkeye ait veri üzerinden uygulanan Driscoll Kraay modeline göre EKC hipotezinin geçerliliğine dair bir kanıt bulunamamaktadır. Bununla birlikte NOx emisyonları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi gösteren oldukça ilgi çekici sonuçlar tespit edilmektedir. Model tahmininden elde edilen bulgulara göre ekonomik büyüme emisyonları azaltmaktadır. Ancak ekonomik büyümenin karesinin emisyon azaltıcı etkisi azalarak devam etmektedir. Bu durum azalan marjinal bir etkinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Nihayetinde ekonomik büyümenin küpü ise emisyonları artırıcı yönde bir etki oluşturmaktadır. Dolayısıyla NOx emisyonları için belirli bir seviyeden sonra ekonomik büyümenin emisyon azaltıcı etkisi azalmaya ve ardından tam tersi yönde etki etmeye başlamaktadır. Bu da gösteriyor ki ülkelerin çevreye zarar vermeyen bir optimal ekonomik büyüme yakalamaları mümkün olabilmektedir. Ancak daha fazla ekonomik büyüme arzusu beraberinde çevresel tahribatı da getirmektedir. Öte yandan SOx emisyonları ile büyüme arasında herhangi bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir.

Abstract

Debates on the environmental impact of economic growth remain unresolved. The mainstream perspective often dismisses concerns about economic growth leading to environmental degradation. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is one of the theories providing empirical support for this viewpoint. This study re-examines the EKC hypothesis using NOₓ and SOₓ emissions. Applying the Driscoll-Kraay model estimator to both pollutants, no evidence supports the presence of the EKC. However, an interesting pattern emerges regarding NOₓ emissions. The analysis indicate that economic growth reduces NOₓ. However, a decreasing marginal impact was observed when examining the effect of the quadratic form of economic growth on emissions. Ultimately, the cubic term of economic growth exerts an emission-increasing effect. Consequently, beyond a certain threshold, the emission-reducing impact of economic growth on NOₓ begins to diminish and eventually reverses, leading to an increase in emissions. This suggests that while countries may achieve an optimal level where growth doesn’t harm the environment, excessive expansion ultimately results in environmental degradation. Additionally, no relationship is found between SOₓ and growth. These findings highlight the complexity of the growth-environment nexus and the challenges in achieving sustainable economic policies.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Asoy, E. (2026). Daha fazla ekonomik büyüme beraberinde çevresel iyileşmeyi getirir mi? NOx ve SOx emisyonları için EKC hipotezinin sınanması. TESAM Akademi Dergisi, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1, 109–146. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.1646353

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