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Dergiler / Communications Faculty of Sciences University of Ankara Series A1 Mathematics and Statistics / 2026 / Volume: 69 Issue: 1

Forecasting mortality rates with a general stochastic mortality trend model

Etkin Hasgül(Middle East Technical University, Institute of Applied Mathematics)0000-0002-2884-0648
A. Sevtap Selcuk-kestel(Middle East Technical University, Institute of Applied Mathematics)0000-0001-5647-7973
Yeliz Yolcu Okur(Middle East Technical University, Institute of Applied Mathematics)0000-0001-5080-3854
Sayfa
—
Yayın Tarihi
2020-06-30
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

A detailed comparison study is performed to illustrate modified mortality rates on the net single premiums over mortality trend model and Lee-Carter model.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:This paper presents a model, which can closely estimate the future mortality rates whose efficiency is performed through the comparisons with respect to Lee-Carter and mortality trend models.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:This general model estimates the logit function of death rate in terms of general tendency of the mortality evolution independent of age, the mortality steepness, additional effects of childhood, youth and old age.
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Sonuç & Katkı:A detailed comparison study is performed to illustrate modified mortality rates on the net single premiums over mortality trend model and Lee-Carter model.
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:Mortality trend model · Lee-Carter · GLM

Abstract

This paper presents a model, which can closely estimate the future mortality rates whose efficiency is performed through the comparisons with respect to Lee-Carter and mortality trend models. This general model estimates the logit function of death rate in terms of general tendency of the mortality evolution independent of age, the mortality steepness, additional effects of childhood, youth and old age. Generalized linear model (GLM) is used to estimate the parameters. Moreover, the weighted least square (WLS) and random walk with drift (RWWD) methods are employed to project the future values of the parameters. In order to ensure the stability of the outputs and construct the confidence intervals, Monte Carlo simulation is used. The impact of the proposed model is implemented on USA, France, Italy, Japan and Israel mortality rates for both genders based on their ageing structure. A detailed comparison study is performed to illustrate modified mortality rates on the net single premiums over mortality trend model and Lee-Carter model.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Hasgül, E., Selcuk-kestel, A. S., Okur, Y. Y. (2020). Forecasting mortality rates with a general stochastic mortality trend model. Communications Faculty of Sciences University of Ankara Series A1 Mathematics and Statistics, Volume: 69 Issue: 1. https://doi.org/10.31801/cfsuasmas.478265

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Kaynakça (14)

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