KaydedilenlerDerginizi ekleyin

Dergiler / Black Sea Journal of Agriculture / 2026 / Cilt: 9 Sayı: 5

Estimation of Aquifer Recharge of the Semi-Arid Konya Closed Basin in Türkiye under Climate Change

Onur Cem Yoloğlu(BOĞAZİÇİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-2856-3986
İrem Daloğlu Çetinkaya(BOĞAZİÇİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-9456-4610
Nadim K Copty(BOĞAZİÇİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-4807-7790
Sayfa
850–862
Yayın Tarihi
2026-09-15
🏛️Bu makalenin bibliyografik verileri ve tam metin bağlantısı DergiPark üzerinden sağlanmıştır.
DergiPark Kaydı ↗
✨

Yapay Zeka Hızlı Bakış & Çıkarımlar

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

These findings underscore the importance of accurate recharge quantification as a prerequisite for sustainable groundwater resource governance in water-scarce, agriculturally dependent semi-arid basins.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:Irrigated agriculture in semi-arid closed basins depends heavily on groundwater, yet the feedbacks between irrigation practice and aquifer recharge remain poorly quantified.
📊
Temel Bulgular & Veri:This study develops a coupled unsaturated-saturated flow model based on the MODFLOW/UZF framework to estimate spatiotemporal recharge dynamics across the basin and to assess the sensitivity of recharge and the overall water budget to changes in irrigation efficiency, cropping patterns, and future climate.
💡
Sonuç & Katkı:These findings underscore the importance of accurate recharge quantification as a prerequisite for sustainable groundwater resource governance in water-scarce, agriculturally dependent semi-arid basins.
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:2040 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Groundwater recharge · Irrigation return flow · Semi-arid basin

Özet

Irrigated agriculture in semi-arid closed basins depends heavily on groundwater, yet the feedbacks between irrigation practice and aquifer recharge remain poorly quantified. The Konya Closed Basin, one of Türkiye's most productive agricultural regions, exemplifies this challenge: with intensive largely unregulated irrigation withdrawals exceeding aquifer recharge leading to rapid declines of groundwater levels. This study develops a coupled unsaturated-saturated flow model based on the MODFLOW/UZF framework to estimate spatiotemporal recharge dynamics across the basin and to assess the sensitivity of recharge and the overall water budget to changes in irrigation efficiency, cropping patterns, and future climate. The model explicitly captures the complex non-linear processes governing water infiltration through the vadose zone and evapotranspiration, with groundwater extraction estimated from historical cultivated areas and crop water demands. Future hydroclimatic conditions were projected using seventeen regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX framework. Projected climate change through 2040 is modest, so irrigation management and cropping decisions emerge as the dominant controls on recharge dynamics. Moreover, recharge is spatially variable, governed principally by the spatial distribution of precipitation, crop type, and vadose zone hydraulic properties. The highest recharge rates are concentrated in the Beyşehir Lake catchment and along the Taurus Mountain forming the southern basin boundary. Temporally, recharge exhibits somewhat steady rates relative to surface water application, a pattern attributed to the buffering capacity of the thick unsaturated zone, which dissipates and delays peak infiltration signals. Scenario analyses demonstrate that improvements in irrigation efficiency and transitions away from water-intensive summer crops such as corn, while effective in reducing consumptive water use, exert limited influence on irrigation return flow recharge, owing to the dominance of evapotranspiration losses during the summer irrigation period. Recharge rates are estimated at approximately 20–40% of total water application, placing the basin at the upper end of values reported for irrigation-intensive semi-arid regions. These findings underscore the importance of accurate recharge quantification as a prerequisite for sustainable groundwater resource governance in water-scarce, agriculturally dependent semi-arid basins.

Abstract

Irrigated agriculture in semi-arid closed basins depends heavily on groundwater, yet the feedbacks between irrigation practice and aquifer recharge remain poorly quantified. The Konya Closed Basin, one of Türkiye's most productive agricultural regions, exemplifies this challenge: with intensive largely unregulated irrigation withdrawals exceeding aquifer recharge leading to rapid declines of groundwater levels. This study develops a coupled unsaturated-saturated flow model based on the MODFLOW/UZF framework to estimate spatiotemporal recharge dynamics across the basin and to assess the sensitivity of recharge and the overall water budget to changes in irrigation efficiency, cropping patterns, and future climate. The model explicitly captures the complex non-linear processes governing water infiltration through the vadose zone and evapotranspiration, with groundwater extraction estimated from historical cultivated areas and crop water demands. Future hydroclimatic conditions were projected using seventeen regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX framework. Projected climate change through 2040 is modest, so irrigation management and cropping decisions emerge as the dominant controls on recharge dynamics. Moreover, recharge is spatially variable, governed principally by the spatial distribution of precipitation, crop type, and vadose zone hydraulic properties. The highest recharge rates are concentrated in the Beyşehir Lake catchment and along the Taurus Mountain forming the southern basin boundary. Temporally, recharge exhibits somewhat steady rates relative to surface water application, a pattern attributed to the buffering capacity of the thick unsaturated zone, which dissipates and delays peak infiltration signals. Scenario analyses demonstrate that improvements in irrigation efficiency and transitions away from water-intensive summer crops such as corn, while effective in reducing consumptive water use, exert limited influence on irrigation return flow recharge, owing to the dominance of evapotranspiration losses during the summer irrigation period. Recharge rates are estimated at approximately 20–40% of total water application, placing the basin at the upper end of values reported for irrigation-intensive semi-arid regions. These findings underscore the importance of accurate recharge quantification as a prerequisite for sustainable groundwater resource governance in water-scarce, agriculturally dependent semi-arid basins.

🔖

Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Yoloğlu, O. C., Çetinkaya, İ. D., Copty, N. K. (2026). Estimation of Aquifer Recharge of the Semi-Arid Konya Closed Basin in Türkiye under Climate Change. Black Sea Journal of Agriculture, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 5, 850–862. https://doi.org/10.47115/bsagriculture.1948524

📄 Tam Metin PDF Okuyucu

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

Kaynakça (36)

  1. Babaei, M., & Ketabchi, H. (2022). Determining groundwater recharge rate with a distributed model and remote sensing techniques. Water Resources Management, 36(14), 5401–5423. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03315-w
  2. Bayari, C. S., Ozyurt, N. N., & Kilani, S. (2009). Radiocarbon age distribution of groundwater in the Konya Closed Basin, central Anatolia, Turkey. Hydrogeology Journal, 17(2), 347–365. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-008-0358-2
  3. Bouimouass, H., Ouassanouan, Y., Baba, M. W., & Chehbouni, A. (2025). Linking groundwater recharge dynamics to traditional irrigation practices in a semiarid mountain-front system. Agricultural Water Management, 320, 109855. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109855
  4. Brooks, R. H., & Corey, A. T. (1964). Hydraulic properties of porous media (Hydrology Paper No. 3). Colorado State University.
  5. Butler, J. J., Jr., Whittemore, D. O., Wilson, B. B., & Bohling, G. C. (2016). A new approach for assessing the future of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(5), 2004–2010. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067879
  6. Caschetto, M., Sacchi, E., Pinti, D. L., Riparbelli, C., Bruno, S., Zanotti, C., Bonomi, T., & Rotiroti, M. (2025). Surface-water-irrigation return flow dominates groundwater recharge, groundwater age and nitrate dynamics in an alluvial basin aquifer. Water Research, 285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2025.124040
  7. Daloğlu Çetinkaya, İ., Uygur I., Saysel A.K. (2025). Navigating an impending crisis: Groundwater governance in Konya Closed Basin, Türkiye. Groundwater for Sustainable Development. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2025.101540
  8. Deviren Saygin, S., Ozturk, H. S., Akca, M. O., Copty, N. K., Erpul, G., Demirel, B., Saysel, A. K., Babaei, M. (2023) Solute transport through undisturbed carbonatic clay soils in dry regions under differing water quality and irrigation patterns. Geoderma, 434, 116489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2023.116489
  9. Gebru, A. B., Gebreyohannes, T., Kahsay, G. H., Grum, B. (2024). The dilemma of choosing appropriate groundwater recharge estimation methods in Ethiopia: A systematic review of the existing methods. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 27, 101358, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2024.101358
  10. Gee, G. W., & Hillel, D. (1988). Groundwater recharge in arid regions: Review and critique of estimation methods. Hydrological Processes, 2(3), 255–266. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.3360020306
  11. Grafton, R. Q., Williams, J., Perry, C. J., Molle, F., Ringler, C., Steduto, P., Udall, B., Wheeler, S. A., Wang, Y., Garrick, D., & Allen, R. G. (2018). The paradox of irrigation efficiency. Science, 361(6404), 748–750. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat9314
  12. Harbaugh, A. W., Banta, E. R., Hill, M. C., & McDonald, M. G. (2000). MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model: User guide to modularization concepts and the ground-water flow process (Open-File Report 00-92). U.S. Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr200092
  13. Healy, R. W. (2010). Estimating groundwater recharge. Cambridge University Press.
  14. Kartal, V., & Nones, M. (2024). Assessment of meteorological, hydrological and groundwater drought in the Konya Closed Basin, Türkiye. Environmental Earth Sciences, 83, 285. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11587-1
  15. Lee, S., Irvine, D. J., et al. (2025). Focused groundwater recharge is controlled by landscape and climate. Communications Earth & Environment, 7, 40. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03063-w
  16. Mensah, J. K., Ofosu, E. A., Yidana, S. M., Akpoti, K., & Kabo-bah, A. T. (2022). Integrated modeling of hydrological processes and groundwater recharge based on land use land cover, and climate changes: A systematic review. Environmental Advances, 8, 100224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envadv.2022.100224
  17. Navarro-Farfán, M. D. M., García-Romero, L., Martínez-Cinco, M. A., Hernández-Hernández, M. A., & Sánchez-Quispe, S. T. (2024). Comparison between MODFLOW groundwater modeling with traditional and distributed recharge. Hydrology, 11(1), 9. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11010009
  18. Nick, S. M., Copty, N. K., Saygın, S. D., Öztürk, H. S., Demirel, B., Emadian, S. M., Erpul, G., Sedighi, M., Babaei, M., (2024) Impact of soil compaction and irrigation practices on salt dynamics in the presence of a saline shallow groundwater: An experimental and modelling study. Hydrological Processes 38(3), e15135. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.15135
  19. Niswonger, R. G., Prudic, D. E., & Regan, R. S. (2006). Documentation of the Unsaturated-Zone Flow (UZF1) Package for modeling unsaturated flow between the land surface and the water table with MODFLOW-2005 (Techniques and Methods 6-A19). U.S. Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A19
  20. Noori, R., Maghrebi, M., Jessen, S., Bateni, S. M., Heggy, E., Javadi, S., Noury, M., Pistre, S., Abolfathi, S., & AghaKouchak, A. (2023). Decline in Iran’s groundwater recharge. Nature Communications, 14(1), 6674. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42411-2
  21. Orhan, O., Haghshenas Haghighi, M., Demir, V., Gökkaya, E., Gutiérrez, F., & Al-Halbouni, D. (2024). Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Land Subsidence and Sinkhole Occurrence in the Konya Endorheic Basin, Turkey. Geosciences 14(1), 5. https://doi.org/10.15488/16651
  22. Sanford, W. (2002). Recharge and groundwater models: An overview. Hydrogeology Journal, 10(1), 110–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-001-0173-5
  23. Scanlon, B. R., Healy, R. W., & Cook, P. G. (2002). Choosing appropriate techniques for quantifying groundwater recharge. Hydrogeology Journal, 10(1), 18–39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-001-0176-2
  24. Scanlon, B. R., Keese, K. E., Flint, A. L., Flint, L. E., Gaye, C. B., Edmunds, W. M., & Simmers, I. (2006). Global synthesis of groundwater recharge in semiarid and arid regions. Hydrological Processes, 20(15), 3335–3370. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6335
  25. Scibek, J., & Allen, D. M. (2006). Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels. Water Resources Research, 42(11), W11405. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004742
  26. Scott, C. A., Vicuña, S., Blanco-Gutiérrez, I., Meza, F., & Varela-Ortega, C. (2014). Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river basin resilience. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(4), 1339–1348. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1339-2014
  27. Smerdon, B. D. (2017). A synopsis of climate change effects on groundwater recharge. Journal of Hydrology, 555, 125–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.047
  28. TAGEM. (2017). Türkiye’de Sulanan Bitkilerin Bitki Su Tüketimleri (Crop Water Consumption of Irrigated Plants in Turkey, (in Turkish)). https:// www. tarim orman. gov. tr/ TAGEM/ Belge ler/yayin/ Türkiye de% 20Sul anan% 20Bit kiler in% 20Bit ki% 20Su%20Tüketim leri. pdf. (accessed on 07 April 2023).
  29. Tirol Kırçiçek, N., Bilgiç Güngör, E., Baba, A. (2025). Challenges Faced by Closed Basins from the Perspective of Water Resources: Case Studies from Türkiye. In: Ali, S., Negm, A. (eds) Groundwater in Developing Countries. Springer Water. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-79122-2_10
  30. Todaro, V., D’Oria, M., Secci, D., Zanini, A., Tanda, M. G. (2022). Climate change over the Mediterranean Region: Local temperature and precipitation variations at five pilot sites. Water, 14(16), 2499. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14162499
  31. TÜİK. (2023). Agricultural production statistics. Turkish Statistical Institute. https://www.tuik.gov.tr (accessed on 07 April 2023).
  32. Tulip, S. S., Siddik, M. S., Islam, M. N., Rahman, A., Haghighi, A. T., & Mustafa, S. M. T. (2022). The impact of irrigation return flow on seasonal groundwater recharge in northwestern Bangladesh. Agricultural Water Management, 266, 107593. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107593
  33. Türkseven, Ö.Y., Baba, A., Cuevas, R.M., O Gündüz. (2026). Estimation of groundwater recharge in a Mediterranean island aquifer with CMB and HYDRUS-1D methods: case study—Bozcaada (Türkiye). Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 198, 453 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-026-15281-6
  34. Xiong, Y., Zhang, R., Wu, W., & Cai, X. (2021). Improving the scientific understanding of the paradox of irrigation efficiency: An integrated modeling approach to assessing basin-scale irrigation efficiency. Water Resources Research, 57(12), e2020WR029397. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029397
  35. Yılmaz, G., Çolak, M. A., Özgencil, İ. K., Metin, M., Korkmaz, M., Ertuğrul, S., Soyluer, M., Bucak, T., Tavşanoğlu, Ü. N., Özkan, K., Akyürek, Z., Beklioğlu, M., & Jeppesen, E. (2021). Decadal changes in size, salinity, waterbirds, and fish in lakes of the Konya Closed Basin, Turkey, associated with climate change and increasing water abstraction for agriculture. Inland Waters, 11(4), 538–555. https://doi.org/10.1080/20442041.2021.1924034
  36. Yoloğlu, O.C., Daloğlu Çetinkaya, İ. & Copty, N.K. (2026) Groundwater sustainability for irrigation in the semi-arid Konya Closed Basin, Türkiye, under climate change scenarios. Hydrogeology Journal., 34, 1563-1580. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-026-03052-z