KaydedilenlerDerginizi ekleyin

Dergiler / Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 23 Sayı: 5

Risk Matrix Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Local Forest Farmers in Buton, Indonesia

Annisa Firdauzi(Universitas Diponegoro)0000-0002-0260-0558
Fatikhah Nurul Fajri(Universitas Diponegoro)0009-0001-1511-2510
Pramesti Megayana(Universitas Diponegoro)0009-0006-8448-8948
Sayfa
1629–1641
Yayın Tarihi
2026-10-01
🏛️Bu makalenin bibliyografik verileri ve tam metin bağlantısı DergiPark üzerinden sağlanmıştır.
DergiPark Kaydı ↗
✨

Yapay Zeka Hızlı Bakış & Çıkarımlar

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

By applying a structured risk-prioritization framework, this study contributes to climate adaptation planning and supports policy strategies aligned with SDG targets related to resilient agriculture, poverty reduction, and sustainable rural livelihoods.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:Agricultural livelihoods in eastern Indonesia are increasingly exposed to climate-related risks, posing challenges to sustainable development and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 2: Zero Hunger and SDG 13: Climate Action).
📊
Temel Bulgular & Veri:Using a qualitative thematic approach combined with a 5×5 risk matrix, data were collected from 250 farmers across three agroecological zones representing upland (Kapontori), midland (South Lasalimu), and lowland/coastal areas (Siotapina).
💡
Sonuç & Katkı:By applying a structured risk-prioritization framework, this study contributes to climate adaptation planning and supports policy strategies aligned with SDG targets related to resilient agriculture, poverty reduction, and sustainable rural livelihoods.
🔬Tür:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:Climate change · Risk management · Smallholder farmers

Özet

Agricultural livelihoods in eastern Indonesia are increasingly exposed to climate-related risks, posing challenges to sustainable development and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 2: Zero Hunger and SDG 13: Climate Action). This study assesses climate change risks experienced by forest farmer groups (Kelompok Tani Hutan/KTH) in Buton Regency, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. Using a qualitative thematic approach combined with a 5×5 risk matrix, data were collected from 250 farmers across three agroecological zones representing upland (Kapontori), midland (South Lasalimu), and lowland/coastal areas (Siotapina). Results show that crop failure represents the highest risk (score 20), particularly in upland rain-fed farms where water shortages and irregular rainfall are frequent. Income decline (16), groundwater depletion (15), and rising production costs (15) were categorized as very high risks, with stronger impacts reported in midland and coastal farming systems where irrigation access and market dependence increase production vulnerability. Medium risks include health impacts, malnutrition, and water quality deterioration, highlighting the linkage between climate stress and food and nutrition security. The spatial differences across agroecological zones indicate that climate risks are context-specific and require differentiated adaptation interventions rather than uniform policy responses. Strengthening water management, climate information services, livelihood diversification, and community-based preparedness should therefore be prioritized according to local risk profiles. These findings demonstrate that climate risks in Buton extend beyond agricultural production to socioeconomic and health dimensions. By applying a structured risk-prioritization framework, this study contributes to climate adaptation planning and supports policy strategies aligned with SDG targets related to resilient agriculture, poverty reduction, and sustainable rural livelihoods.

Abstract

Agricultural livelihoods in eastern Indonesia are increasingly exposed to climate-related risks, posing challenges to sustainable development and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 2: Zero Hunger and SDG 13: Climate Action). This study assesses climate change risks experienced by forest farmer groups (Kelompok Tani Hutan/KTH) in Buton Regency, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. Using a qualitative thematic approach combined with a 5×5 risk matrix, data were collected from 250 farmers across three agroecological zones representing upland (Kapontori), midland (South Lasalimu), and lowland/coastal areas (Siotapina). Results show that crop failure represents the highest risk (score 20), particularly in upland rain-fed farms where water shortages and irregular rainfall are frequent. Income decline (16), groundwater depletion (15), and rising production costs (15) were categorized as very high risks, with stronger impacts reported in midland and coastal farming systems where irrigation access and market dependence increase production vulnerability. Medium risks include health impacts, malnutrition, and water quality deterioration, highlighting the linkage between climate stress and food and nutrition security. The spatial differences across agroecological zones indicate that climate risks are context-specific and require differentiated adaptation interventions rather than uniform policy responses. Strengthening water management, climate information services, livelihood diversification, and community-based preparedness should therefore be prioritized according to local risk profiles. These findings demonstrate that climate risks in Buton extend beyond agricultural production to socioeconomic and health dimensions. By applying a structured risk-prioritization framework, this study contributes to climate adaptation planning and supports policy strategies aligned with SDG targets related to resilient agriculture, poverty reduction, and sustainable rural livelihoods.

🔖

Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Firdauzi, A., Fajri, F. N., Megayana, P. (2026). Risk Matrix Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Local Forest Farmers in Buton, Indonesia. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 5, 1629–1641. https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1777876

📄 Tam Metin PDF Okuyucu

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

Kaynakça (54)

  1. Aldosari, F., Al Shunaifi, M. S., Ullah, M. A., Muddassir, M., Noor, M. A., (2019). Farmers’perceptions regarding the use of information and communication technology (ICT) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Northern Pakistan. Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences, 18(2): 211–217.
  2. Andriamananjara, A., Minten, B. and Barrett, C. B. (2021). Climate shocks, adaptation, and agricultural income: Evidence from developing countries. World Development, 145: 105505. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105505
  3. Andrista, Y., Fanani, Z. and Syahrul, S. (2025). Smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change in Indonesia: Evidence from multi-district survey including Buton. Journal of Environmental Management, 345: 118765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.118765
  4. Aryal, J. P., Sapkota, T. B., Khurana, R., Khatri-Chhetri, A., Rahut, D. B. and Jat, M. L. (2019). Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: Adaptation options in smallholder production systems. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 21(1): 135–155. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-017-0020-0
  5. Asfaw, S., Di Battista, F. and Lipper, L. (2019). Agricultural technology adoption under climate change in the Sahel: Micro-evidence from Niger. Journal of African Economies, 28(1): 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejy018
  6. Aven, T. (2016). Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation. European Journal of Operational Research, 253(1): 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.023
  7. Biggs, T., Khandekar, N. and Marshall, C. (2021). Groundwater depletion and irrigation challenges in South and Southeast Asia. Water Resources Research, 57(9): e2021WR030213. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030213
  8. BPS Kabupaten Buton (2023). Kabupaten Buton dalam Angka 2023. Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Buton. https://butonkab.bps.go.id (Accesed Date: 13.07.2025)
  9. Bryan, E., Ringler, C., Okoba, B., Roncoli, C., Silvestri, S. and Herrero, M. (2013). Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: Household strategies and determinants. Journal of Environmental Management, 114: 26–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.036
  10. Busthanul, N., Demmallino, E. B., Sultani, H. R., Lampe, M., Ismail, A., Yassi, A. and Basir-Cyio, M. (2023). Ecological adaptation of smallholders to tropical climate change in the highland zone of South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Biodiversitas, 24(3): 1292–1303. https://doi.org/10.13057/biodiv/d240307
  11. Çakmakçı, Y., Hurma, H. and Çakmakçı, C. (2024). Determination of consumer perceptions of eco-friendly food products using unsupervised machine learning. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 21(3): 634-647.
  12. Challa, M., Tilahun, U., (2014). Determinants and impacts of modern agricultural technology adoption in west Wollega: the case of Gulliso district. Journal of Biology, Agriculture and Healthcare, 4(20): 63–77.
  13. Challinor, A. J., Watson, J., Lobell, D. B., Howden, S. M., Smith, D. R. and Chhetri, N. (2014). A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 4(4): 287–291. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2153
  14. Clark, M. A., Domingo, N. G. G., Colgan, K., Thakrar, S. K., Tilman, D., Lynch, J.,. and Hill, J. D. (2020). Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets. Science, 370(6517): 705–708. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba7357
  15. Deressa, T. T., Hassan, R. M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T. and Yesuf, M. (2009). Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change, 19(2): 248–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.01.002
  16. Deutsch, C. A., Tewksbury, J. J., Tigchelaar, M., Battisti, D. S., Merrill, S. C., Huey, R. B. and Naylor, R. L. (2018). Increase in crop losses to insect pests in a warming climate. Science, 361(6405): 916–919. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat3466
  17. Djoudi, H. and Brockhaus, M. (2011). Is adaptation to climate change gender neutral? Lessons from communities dependent on livestock and forests in northern Mali. International Forestry Review, 13(2): 123–135. https://doi.org/10.1505/146554811797406606
  18. Ebi, K. L., Capon, A., Berry, P., Broderick, C., de Dear, R., Havenith, G., Honda, Y., Kovats, S., Ma, W., Malik, A., Morris, N. B., Nybo, L., Seneviratne, S. I., Vanos, J. and Jay, O. (2021). Hot weather and heat extremes: Health risks. The Lancet, 398(10301): 698–708. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01208-3
  19. Fanzo, J., McLaren, R., Davis, C. and Mattei, F. (2025). Climate change and nutrition: Emerging risks for food security and human health. Annual Review of Nutrition, 45(1): 89–110. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-nutr-082019-103623
  20. FAO (2021). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021. Food and Agriculture Organization. Firdauzi, A., Ekowati, T., Prasetyo, A. S. And Mariyono, J., (2024). Factor Determining the Smallholder Farmer’s Perception on Organic Farming: A Case of Makmur Sejahtera Farmers Group, Batu City, Indonesia. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 21(3): 722-731.
  21. Fisher, M. R., Dhiaulhaq, A. and Sahide, M. A. K. (2018). The politics, economies, and ecologies of Indonesia’s third generation of social forestry: An introduction to the special section. Forest and Society, 2(1): 152–170.
  22. Hahn, M. B., Riederer, A. M. and Foster, S. O. (2009). The Livelihood Vulnerability Index: A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change. Global Environmental Change, 19(1): 74–88.
  23. Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Takahashi, K. and Masui, T. (2018). Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(33): 8523–8528. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1801552115
  24. Hosono, T., Nakano, T. and Siringan, F. (2017). Impact of urbanization on groundwater salinization in Asian coastal cities. Hydrogeology Journal, 25(7): 2163–2179. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-017-1590-4
  25. IPCC (2022a). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, U. K.
  26. IPCC (2022b). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, U. K.
  27. Jahan, I., Ahsan, D. and Farque, M. H. (2015). Fishers' local knowledge on impact of climate change and anthropogenic interferences on Hilsa fishery in South Asia: evidence from Bangladesh. Environ. Dev. Sustain., 1–18.
  28. Jost, C., Kyazze, F., Naab, J., Neelormi, S., Kinyangi, J., Zougmore, R., Aggarwal, P., Bhatta, G., Chaudhury, M., Tapio-Bistrom, M., Nelson, S. and Kristjanson, P. (2016). Understanding gender dimensions of agriculture and climate change in smallholder farming communities. Climate and Development, 8(2): 133–144. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2015.1050978
  29. Kjellstrom, T., Briggs, D., Freyberg, C., Lemke, B., Otto, M. and Hyatt, O. (2016). Heat, human performance, and occupational health: A key issue for the assessment of global climate change impacts. Annual Review of Public Health, 37: 97–112. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-032315-021740
  30. Levi, M., Kjellstrom, T. and Baldasseroni, A. (2018). Impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity: A systematic review. The Lancet Planetary Health, 2(12): e543–e552. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30237-2
  31. Lezzaik, K., Millewski, A., Mullen, J. (2018). The groundwater risk index: Development and application in the Middle East and North Africa region. Science of The Total Environment, 628-629:1149-1164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.066
  32. Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W. and Costa-Roberts, J. (2011). Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science, 333(6042): 616–620. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204531
  33. Mardy, T., Uddin, M., Sarker, M., Roy, D. and Dunn, E. (2018). Assessing coping strategies in response to drought: A micro level study in the North-West region of Bangladesh. Climate, 6(2): 23. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020023
  34. Mariyono, J. and Kuntariningsih, A. (2026). Empowering farmer community with technology modernisation to improve rice farming performance through demonstration farms in East Java, Indonesia. International Journal of Innovation, 18(1): 248–267. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJIS-12-2023-0271
  35. Mariyono, J., Abdurrachman, H., Suswati, E., Susilawati, A.D., Sujarwo, M., Waskito, J., Suwandi and Zainudin, A. (2020). Rural modernisation through intensive vegetable farming agribusiness in Indonesia. Rural Society, 29(2): 116–133. https://doi.org/10.1080/10371656.2020.1787621
  36. Mariyono, J., Gayatri, S., Prayoga, K., Prasetyo, A. S. and Sumekar, W. (2026). Socioeconomic and technical responses of farmers toward agroecological knowledge and innovations in Java, Indonesia. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 42(1): 63–73. https://dx.doi.org/10.17582/journal.sja/2026/42.1.63.73
  37. Maryudi, A., Devkota, R., Schusser, C., Yufanyi Movuh, M. C., Salla, M., Aurenhammer, H., … Krott, M. (2012). Back to basics: Considerations in evaluating the outcomes of community forestry. Forest Policy and Economics, 14(1): 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2011.07.017
  38. Mwangi, M., Kariuki, S., (2015). Factors determining adoption of new agricultural technology by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 6(5): 208-216.
  39. O’Neill, B. C., Ebi, K. L. and Kriegler, E. (2022). Water quality and climate change: Interactions and policy implications. Science of the Total Environment, 815, 152726. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152726 Pingali, P. (2015). Agricultural policy and nutrition outcomes: Getting beyond the preoccupation with staple grains. Food Security, 7(3): 583–591.
  40. Prayoga, K., Mariyono, J. and Firdauzi, A. (2025). De kretek konning from Kudus: H. M. Nitisemito's business mindset and strategy against foreign business hegemony in the Dutch East Indies. Multidisciplinary Science Journal, 7(8): e2025359. https://doi.org/10.31893/multiscience.2025359
  41. Rogers, E.M., (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, Fifth ed. Free Press, New York, U. S. A.
  42. Santoso, S. I., Firdauzi, A. and Safitri, D. (2025). Shifting patterns of fruit and vegetable consumption behavior in Central Java Province, Indonesia. Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 35(6): 1559–1570. https://doi.org/10.36899/JAPS.2025.6.0132
  43. Sapkota, R., Aryal, S. and Sapkota, D. (2022). Farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change: Evidence from vegetable producers in Indonesia. Sustainability, 14(4): 2267. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14042267
  44. Shah, T. (2014). Groundwater and climate change: Challenges and possibilities for adaptation. Groundwater, 52(5): 639–651. https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.12219
  45. Smajgl, A., Ward, J. and Pluschke, L. (2015). Responding to rising sea levels in the Mekong Delta. Nature Climate Change, 5(2): 167–174. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2469
  46. Steinke, J., van Etten, J., Müller, A., Ortiz-Crespo, B., van de Gevel, J., Silvestri, S., Priebe, J., (2020). Tapping the full potential of the digital revolution for agricultural extension: an emerging innovation agenda. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 19(Special issue): 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/14735903.2020.1738754
  47. Suryadi, F. X., Rachman, A. and Santoso, P. B. (2022). Groundwater abstraction and land subsidence in Jakarta: Current challenges and mitigation strategies. Water, 14(12): 1845. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14121845
  48. Thornton, P. K., van de Steeg, J., Notenbaert, A. and Herrero, M. (2009). The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: A review of what we know and what we need to know. Agricultural Systems, 101(3): 113–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2009.05.002
  49. Weber, E. U. (2010). What shapes perceptions of climate change? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(3): 332–342. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.41
  50. Wheeler, T. and von Braun, J. (2013). Climate change impacts on global food security. Science, 341(6145): 508–513.
  51. Wijaya, A. F., Kuntariningsih, A., Sarwono, S. and Suryono, A. (2021a). Malnutrition mitigation and community empowerment through the sustainable food reserve programme in Indonesia. Development in Practice, 31(1): 37–48. https://doi.org/10.1080/14735903.2020.1738754
  52. Wijaya, A. F., Kuntariningsih, A., Sarwono, S. and Suryono, A. (2021b). Role and contribution of vegetables in mitigating malnutrition through a sustainable food reserve program. International Journal of Vegetable Science, 27(1): 65–75. https://doi.org/10.1080/19315260.2019.1703872
  53. WWF-India. (2010). Sundarbans: Future imperfect – Climate adaptation report (p. 30). Project Report. World Wide Fund for Nature, India.
  54. Clark, M. A., Domingo, N. G. G., Colgan, K., Thakrar, S. K., Tilman, D., Lynch, J.,. and Hill, J. D. (2020). Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets. Science, 370(6517): 705–708. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba7357