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Journals / Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 23 Sayı: 5

Risk Matrix Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Local Forest Farmers in Buton, Indonesia

Annisa Firdauzi(Universitas Diponegoro)0000-0002-0260-0558
Fatikhah Nurul Fajri(Universitas Diponegoro)0009-0001-1511-2510
Pramesti Megayana(Universitas Diponegoro)0009-0006-8448-8948
Pages
1629–1641
Publication Date
2026-10-01
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Results show that crop failure represents the highest risk (score 20), particularly in upland rain-fed farms where water shortages and irregular rainfall are frequent.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Agricultural livelihoods in eastern Indonesia are increasingly exposed to climate-related risks, posing challenges to sustainable development and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 2: Zero Hunger and SDG 13: Climate Action).
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Key Findings & Data:Using a qualitative thematic approach combined with a 5×5 risk matrix, data were collected from 250 farmers across three agroecological zones representing upland (Kapontori), midland (South Lasalimu), and lowland/coastal areas (Siotapina).
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Conclusion & Impact:Results show that crop failure represents the highest risk (score 20), particularly in upland rain-fed farms where water shortages and irregular rainfall are frequent.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Climate change · Risk management · Smallholder farmers

Abstract

Agricultural livelihoods in eastern Indonesia are increasingly exposed to climate-related risks, posing challenges to sustainable development and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 2: Zero Hunger and SDG 13: Climate Action). This study assesses climate change risks experienced by forest farmer groups (Kelompok Tani Hutan/KTH) in Buton Regency, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. Using a qualitative thematic approach combined with a 5×5 risk matrix, data were collected from 250 farmers across three agroecological zones representing upland (Kapontori), midland (South Lasalimu), and lowland/coastal areas (Siotapina). Results show that crop failure represents the highest risk (score 20), particularly in upland rain-fed farms where water shortages and irregular rainfall are frequent. Income decline (16), groundwater depletion (15), and rising production costs (15) were categorized as very high risks, with stronger impacts reported in midland and coastal farming systems where irrigation access and market dependence increase production vulnerability. Medium risks include health impacts, malnutrition, and water quality deterioration, highlighting the linkage between climate stress and food and nutrition security. The spatial differences across agroecological zones indicate that climate risks are context-specific and require differentiated adaptation interventions rather than uniform policy responses. Strengthening water management, climate information services, livelihood diversification, and community-based preparedness should therefore be prioritized according to local risk profiles. These findings demonstrate that climate risks in Buton extend beyond agricultural production to socioeconomic and health dimensions. By applying a structured risk-prioritization framework, this study contributes to climate adaptation planning and supports policy strategies aligned with SDG targets related to resilient agriculture, poverty reduction, and sustainable rural livelihoods.

Özet

Agricultural livelihoods in eastern Indonesia are increasingly exposed to climate-related risks, posing challenges to sustainable development and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 2: Zero Hunger and SDG 13: Climate Action). This study assesses climate change risks experienced by forest farmer groups (Kelompok Tani Hutan/KTH) in Buton Regency, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. Using a qualitative thematic approach combined with a 5×5 risk matrix, data were collected from 250 farmers across three agroecological zones representing upland (Kapontori), midland (South Lasalimu), and lowland/coastal areas (Siotapina). Results show that crop failure represents the highest risk (score 20), particularly in upland rain-fed farms where water shortages and irregular rainfall are frequent. Income decline (16), groundwater depletion (15), and rising production costs (15) were categorized as very high risks, with stronger impacts reported in midland and coastal farming systems where irrigation access and market dependence increase production vulnerability. Medium risks include health impacts, malnutrition, and water quality deterioration, highlighting the linkage between climate stress and food and nutrition security. The spatial differences across agroecological zones indicate that climate risks are context-specific and require differentiated adaptation interventions rather than uniform policy responses. Strengthening water management, climate information services, livelihood diversification, and community-based preparedness should therefore be prioritized according to local risk profiles. These findings demonstrate that climate risks in Buton extend beyond agricultural production to socioeconomic and health dimensions. By applying a structured risk-prioritization framework, this study contributes to climate adaptation planning and supports policy strategies aligned with SDG targets related to resilient agriculture, poverty reduction, and sustainable rural livelihoods.

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Cite This Article

Firdauzi, A., Fajri, F. N., Megayana, P. (2026). Risk Matrix Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Local Forest Farmers in Buton, Indonesia. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 5, 1629–1641. https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1777876

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