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Dergiler / International Journal of Public Finance / 2026 / Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1

Türkiye'de Dolaylı Vergi Ağırlığının Vergi Gelirlerinin İstikrarı Üzerine Etkileri: ARDL Yöntemi İle Analiz

The Effects of the Share of Indirect Taxes on the Stability of Tax Revenues in Türkiye: An Analysis Using the ARDL Method

Gümrah Can Başdağ(KİLİS 7 ARALIK ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0009-0001-5164-2981
Sayfa
249–274
Yayın Tarihi
2026-06-30
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Elde edilen bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır.

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Amaç & Hipotez:Bu çalışma, vergi gelirlerinin bileşimi ile mali istikrar arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye örneğinde incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Özellikle dolaylı vergilerin toplam vergi gelirleri içindeki payının vergi gelirlerinin istikrarı üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmiştir.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Elde edilen bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır.
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:2023 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:dolaylı vergiler · vergi gelirlerinin istikrarı · ARDL sınır testi

Özet

Bu çalışma, vergi gelirlerinin bileşimi ile mali istikrar arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye örneğinde incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Özellikle dolaylı vergilerin toplam vergi gelirleri içindeki payının vergi gelirlerinin istikrarı üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada 1998–2023 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılmış ve yöntem olarak ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı benimsenmiştir. Vergi gelirlerinin istikrarı, vergi gelirlerinin GSYH’ye oranının standart sapması ile ölçülmüştür. Modelde dolaylı vergi ağırlığı temel bağımsız değişken olarak yer alırken; ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon ve faiz oranı kontrol değişkenleri olarak dahil edilmiştir. Serilerin durağanlığı ADF ve PP birim kök testleri ile sınanmış, optimal gecikme uzunluğu VAR modeli aracılığıyla belirlenmiş ve ayrıca Granger nedensellik analizi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Uzun dönem katsayı tahminlerine göre dolaylı vergi ağırlığındaki %1’lik artış, vergi gelirlerinin istikrarsızlığını %0,088 oranında artırmaktadır. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’de dolaylı vergilere dayalı vergi yapısının vergi gelirlerinin oynaklığını artırarak mali istikrarı olumsuz etkilediğini göstermektedir. Çalışma 1998–2023 dönemi yıllık verileri ile sınırlı olup, vergi gelirlerinin istikrarı yalnızca GSYH’ye oranının standart sapması üzerinden ölçülmüştür. Bu yönüyle çalışma, Türkiye’de vergi kompozisyonu ile mali istikrar arasındaki ilişkiye ampirik kanıt sunarak vergi politikalarının mali sürdürülebilirlik perspektifiyle yeniden değerlendirilmesine katkı sağlamaktadır.

Abstract

This study aims to examine the relationship between the composition of tax revenues and fiscal stability in the case of Türkiye. In particular, it analyzes the effect of the share of indirect taxes in total tax revenues on the stability of tax revenues. Annual data covering the period 1998–2023 are employed, and the ARDL bounds testing approach is adopted as the estimation method. The stability of tax revenues is measured by the standard deviation of the ratio of tax revenues to GDP. In the model, the share of indirect taxes is included as the main independent variable, while economic growth, inflation, and the interest rate are incorporated as control variables. The stationarity properties of the series are tested using ADF and PP unit root tests, the optimal lag length is determined through a VAR model, and Granger causality analysis is also conducted. The empirical findings reveal the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. According to the long-run coefficient estimates, a 1% increase in the share of indirect taxes increases tax revenue instability by 0.088%. The results indicate that a tax structure heavily reliant on indirect taxes in Türkiye increases the volatility of tax revenues and adversely affects fiscal stability. The study is limited to annual data for the period 1998–2023, and tax revenue stability is measured solely by the standard deviation of the tax revenue-to-GDP ratio. In this respect, the study provides empirical evidence on the relationship between tax composition and fiscal stability in Türkiye and offers important implications for reassessing tax policies from the perspective of fiscal sustainability.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Başdağ, G. C. (2026). Türkiye'de Dolaylı Vergi Ağırlığının Vergi Gelirlerinin İstikrarı Üzerine Etkileri: ARDL Yöntemi İle Analiz. International Journal of Public Finance, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 249–274. https://doi.org/10.30927/ijpf.1895952

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