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AVRUPA VE TÜRKİYE’DE NEET YAKINSAMASINI YENİDEN DÜŞÜNMEK: KULÜP YAKINSAMASI, DİJİTALLEŞME VE GÖRÜNMEYEN EKONOMİK KATILIM

RETHINKING NEET CONVERGENCE IN EUROPE AND TÜRKIYE: CLUB CONVERGENCE, DIGITALIZATION, AND HIDDEN ECONOMIC PARTICIPATION

Ali İhsan Balcı(ZONGULDAK BÜLENT ECEVİT ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-9695-732X
Adem Pançalı(Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit Üniversitesi)0000-0002-3086-9036
Sayfa
1400–1432
Yayın Tarihi
2026-09-30
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Bulgular, Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye’de NEET oranlarının tekil bir yakınsama patikası izlemediğini farklı yakınsama kulüplerini oluşturduğunu göstermektedir.

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Amaç & Hipotez:Bu çalışma, Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye’de 15-29 yaş grubundaki NEET oranlarının yakınsama dinamiklerini, yapısal belirleyicilerini ve ölçümsel sınırlılıklarını birlikte incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Literatürde NEET oranlarının düzeyi ve belirleyicileri üzerine geniş bir tartışma bulunmakla birlikte ülkeler arası yakınsama dinamiklerini dijitalleşme ve görünmeyen ekonomik katılım boyutlarıyla birlikte değerlendiren çalışmalar sınırlıdır.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Bulgular, Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye’de NEET oranlarının tekil bir yakınsama patikası izlemediğini farklı yakınsama kulüplerini oluşturduğunu göstermektedir.
🔬Tür:Literatür & Derleme Çalışması
📍Kapsam:2005-2024 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:NEET · Dijitalleşme · Görünmeyen Ekonomik Katılım

Özet

Bu çalışma, Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye’de 15-29 yaş grubundaki NEET oranlarının yakınsama dinamiklerini, yapısal belirleyicilerini ve ölçümsel sınırlılıklarını birlikte incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. NEET göstergesi, gençlerin işsizlik deneyimleri ile birlikte eğitim ve istihdam kurumlarıyla kurdukları bağın zayıflamasını da yansıtan çok boyutlu bir işgücü piyasası göstergesi olarak ele alınmaktadır. Literatürde NEET oranlarının düzeyi ve belirleyicileri üzerine geniş bir tartışma bulunmakla birlikte ülkeler arası yakınsama dinamiklerini dijitalleşme ve görünmeyen ekonomik katılım boyutlarıyla birlikte değerlendiren çalışmalar sınırlıdır. Bu yönüyle araştırma NEET olgusunu kulüp yakınsaması, panel belirleyiciler ve ölçüm sınırları ekseninde bütüncül biçimde analiz ederek literatüre katkı sunmaktadır. Araştırmada 2005-2024 dönemini kapsayan dengeli panel veri seti kullanılmıştır. NEET oranlarının ülkeler arasında ortak bir yakınsama patikası izleyip izlemediği Phillips ve Sul kulüp yakınsaması yaklaşımıyla test edilmiştir. Yapısal belirleyiciler iki yönlü sabit etkiler modeliyle tahmin edilmiştir. Ayrıca dijitalleşme göstergeleri ve işgücü dışı NEET bileşenleri dikkate alınarak resmi NEET göstergesinin fiili ekonomik katılımı temsil etme kapasitesi keşifsel olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular, Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye’de NEET oranlarının tekil bir yakınsama patikası izlemediğini farklı yakınsama kulüplerini oluşturduğunu göstermektedir. Türkiye, yüksek NEET düzeyi ve işgücü dışılık bileşimi nedeniyle ana kulüp yapılarından ayrışan özgün bir konum sergilemektedir. Panel tahminleri, genç işsizliğinin NEET oranları üzerinde anlamlı bir belirleyici olduğunu dijitalleşme göstergesinin modele dahil edilmesinin ise açıklayıcılığı artırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Keşifsel bulgular, dijitalleşmenin ve standart dışı ekonomik faaliyetlerin yaygınlaştığı bağlamlarda resmi NEET göstergesinin gençlerin fiili ekonomik veya yarı ekonomik katılımını eksik temsil edebileceğine işaret etmektedir. Bu nedenle NEET, niceliksel bir dışlanma göstergesi olarak değerlendirilmemeli kurumsal yapı, dijital dönüşüm ve ölçüm sınırlarıyla birlikte düşünülmesi gereken çok katmanlı bir olgu olarak ele alınmalıdır.

Abstract

This study examines the convergence dynamics, structural determinants, and measurement limitations of NEET rates among young people aged 15-29 in European Union countries and Türkiye. The NEET indicator is conceptualized not merely as an extension of youth unemployment but as a multidimensional labor market indicator reflecting young people’s weakening ties with education and employment institutions. Although the existing literature provides extensive evidence on the levels and determinants of NEET, studies that jointly consider cross-country convergence dynamics, digitalization, and hidden economic participation remain limited. In this respect, the study contributes to the literature by integrating club convergence, panel determinants, and measurement boundaries into a unified analytical framework. The empirical analysis is based on a balanced panel dataset covering the period 2005-2024. The Phillips and Sul club convergence approach is employed to test whether NEET rates follow a common convergence path across countries, while the structural determinants of NEET are estimated using a two-way fixed effects model. In addition, the capacity of the official NEET indicator to represent actual economic participation is explored through digitalization indicators and inactive NEET components. The findings show that NEET rates in European Union countries and Türkiye do not follow a single convergence path; instead, distinct convergence clubs emerge. Türkiye occupies a divergent position due to its high NEET level and the strong inactive component within its NEET structure. Panel estimates indicate that youth unemployment is a significant determinant of NEET rates, while the inclusion of the digitalization indicator improves the explanatory power of the model. Exploratory findings suggest that in contexts characterized by digitalization and non-standard economic activities, the official NEET indicator may underrepresent young people’s actual economic or quasi-economic participation. Therefore, NEET should be interpreted not merely as a quantitative indicator of exclusion but as a multidimensional phenomenon shaped by institutional structures, digital transformation, and measurement boundaries.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Balcı, A. İ., Pançalı, A. (2026). AVRUPA VE TÜRKİYE’DE NEET YAKINSAMASINI YENİDEN DÜŞÜNMEK: KULÜP YAKINSAMASI, DİJİTALLEŞME VE GÖRÜNMEYEN EKONOMİK KATILIM. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 3, 1400–1432. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1933310

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