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Journals / Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi / 2023 / Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1

The Effect of Global and Local Factors in Azerbaijan Reel Exchange Rate: Evidence from Quantile Regression

Azerbaycan Reel Döviz Kurunda Küresel ve Yerel Faktörlerin Etkisi: Kantil Regresyondan Kanıt.

Şakir GÖRMÜŞ
Amal ESSAYEM
Murat GÜVEN
Pages
77–89
Publication Date
2023-06-30
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The results showed that all variables generally influence the real exchange rate at lower quantiles.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this study, we analyze the effect of selected local and global factors on Azerbaijan's real exchange rate during the period of January 2013 to April 2021, using the quantile regression method that takes asymmetry into account.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The results showed that all variables generally influence the real exchange rate at lower quantiles.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:The effect of the coefficients also decreases as the quantiles increase.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2013 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Azerbaycan · Petrol Fiyatları · Küresel Faktörler

Abstract

In this study, we analyze the effect of selected local and global factors on Azerbaijan's real exchange rate during the period of January 2013 to April 2021, using the quantile regression method that takes asymmetry into account. The results showed that all variables generally influence the real exchange rate at lower quantiles. Specifically, an increase in OILP and CPI leads to a decrease in RER at Q1-Q5 and Q1-Q2, respectively. Furthermore, an increase in RESV and GPR leads to a decrease in RER at Q1-Q2 and Q1, respectively. The effect of the coefficients also decreases as the quantiles increase.

Özet

Bu çalışmada, Ocak 2013'ten Nisan 2021'e kadar olan dönemde, Azerbaycan'ın reel döviz kuru üzerinde seçilmiş yerel ve küresel faktörlerin etkisi, asimetriyi dikkate alan quantile regresyon yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, tüm değişkenlerin genellikle düşük quantile'lerde reel döviz kuru üzerinde bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Özellikle, OILP ve CPI'daki bir artış sırasıyla Q1-Q5 ve Q1-Q2'de RER'de bir azalmaya neden olmaktadır. Ayrıca, RESV ve GPR'deki bir artış sırasıyla Q1-Q2 ve Q1'de RER'de bir azalmaya neden olmaktadır. Katsayıların etkisi de quantile'ler arttıkça azalmaktadır.

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Cite This Article

GÖRMÜŞ, Ş., ESSAYEM, A., GÜVEN, M. (2023). The Effect of Global and Local Factors in Azerbaijan Reel Exchange Rate: Evidence from Quantile Regression. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 77–89. https://ajindex.com/articles/950678

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