Journals / Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi / 2019 / Cilt: 19 - Sayı: 2

Evaluating the asymmetric effects of production, interest rate and exchange rate on the Turkish stock prices.

Pages
293–300
Publication Date
2019-04-30
DOI
—
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Our results indicate that non-linear models can yield more plausible results compare to linear models.The relationship between stock prices and macro variables has been studied exhaustively in the literature.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The relationship between stock prices and macro variables has been studied exhaustively in the literature.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In this paper, we evaluate the asymmetric effects of production, the interest rate and the exchange rate on Turkish stock prices using non-linear autoregressive distributed lags models.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Our results indicate that non-linear models can yield more plausible results compare to linear models.The relationship between stock prices and macro variables has been studied exhaustively in the literature.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Stock Prices · macro variables · interest rate

Abstract

The relationship between stock prices and macro variables has been studied exhaustively in the literature. However, most of the studies assume that this relationship is linear. In this paper, we evaluate the asymmetric effects of production, the interest rate and the exchange rate on Turkish stock prices using non-linear autoregressive distributed lags models. We find that there are both long-run and short-run asymmetric relationships between macro variables and Turkish stock prices. Our results indicate that non-linear models can yield more plausible results compare to linear models.The relationship between stock prices and macro variables has been studied exhaustively in the literature. However, most of the studies assume that this relationship is linear. In this paper, we evaluate the asymmetric effects of production, the interest rate and the exchange rate on Turkish stock prices using non-linear autoregressive distributed lags models. We find that there are both long-run and short-run asymmetric relationships between macro variables and Turkish stock prices. Our results indicate that non-linear models can yield more plausible results compare to linear models.

🔖

Cite This Article

KAYA, H., SOYBİLGEN, B. (2019). Evaluating the asymmetric effects of production, interest rate and exchange rate on the Turkish stock prices.. Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi, Cilt: 19 - Sayı: 2, 293–300. https://ajindex.com/articles/751898

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (14)

  1. Ang, A., & Piazzesi, M. (2003) “A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables” Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(4), 745-787.
  2. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Saha, S. (2015) “On the relation between stock prices and exchange rates: a review article” Journal of Economic Studies, 42(4), 707-732.
  3. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Saha, S. (2016) “Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on stock prices?” Global Finance Journal, 31, 57-72.
  4. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Saha, S. (2018) “On the relation between exchange rates and stock prices: a non-linear ARDL approach and asymmetry analysis” Journal of Economics and Finance, 42(1), 112-137.
  5. Bodurtha Jr, J. N., Cho, D. C., & Senbet, L. W. (1989) “Economic forces and the stock market: An international perspective” Global Finance Journal, 1(1), 21-46.
  6. Bonga-Bonga, L., & Makakabule, M. (2010) “Modeling stock returns in the South African stock exchange: A nonlinear approach” European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 19, 168-177.
  7. Bredin, D., Hyde, S. & O’Reilly, G. (2008) “Regime changes in the relationship between stock returns and the macroeconomy” British Accounting Association Annual Conference, 1-25.
  8. Cheah, S. P., Yiew, T. H., & Ng, C. F. (2017) “A nonlinear ARDL analysis on the relation between stock price and exchange rate in Malaysia” Economics Bulletin, 37(1), 336-346.
  9. Chen, N. F., Roll, R., & Ross, S. A. (1986) “Economic forces and the stock market” Journal of Business, 59 (3), 383-403.
  10. Cheung, Y. W., & Ng, L. K. (1998) “International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity” Journal of Empirical Finance, 5(3), 281-296.
  11. Cuestas, J. C., & Tang, B. (2015) “Asymmetric exchange rate exposure of stock returns: Empirical evidence from Chinese Industries” The Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series No. 2015021. Erdoğan, L., & Tiryaki, A. (2018) “Asymmetric Effects of Macroeconomic shocks on the Stock Returns of the G-7 Countries: The Evidence from the NARDL Approach” Journal of Current Researches on Business and Economics, 8(1), 119-146.
  12. Fraser, P., & Groenewold, N. (2006) “US share prices and real supply and demand shocks” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46(1), 149-167.
  13. Groenewold, N. (2004) “Fundamental share prices and aggregate real output” Applied Financial Economics, 14(9), 651-661.
  14. Guidolin, M., Hyde, S., McMillan, D., & Ono, S. (2009) “Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When