SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Fiscaoeconomia / 2022 / Cilt: 6 - Sayı: 2

The Causality Test on Exchange Market Pressure on Output in Turkey

Türkiye'de Döviz Piyasası Baskısının Çıktı Üzerindeki Nedenselliği

Yavuz ÖZEK
Halil Oğuzhan ERGÜR
Pages
884–894
Publication Date
2022-10-19
DOI
—
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to findings attained by analyzing data from 2005:01 to 2021:10, it is concluded that the pressure on the foreign exchange market has an adverse effect on growth in the long duration.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:It puts strain on the exchange market and affects negatively the expectations of the economic actors that a country’s national currency has high volatility and the central bank has inadequate reserves.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In this study, causality tests are used to examine whether the pressures in the foreign exchange market are effective on economic growth in the Turkish economy.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:According to findings attained by analyzing data from 2005:01 to 2021:10, it is concluded that the pressure on the foreign exchange market has an adverse effect on growth in the long duration.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2005 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

It puts strain on the exchange market and affects negatively the expectations of the economic actors that a country’s national currency has high volatility and the central bank has inadequate reserves. In this study, causality tests are used to examine whether the pressures in the foreign exchange market are effective on economic growth in the Turkish economy. According to findings attained by analyzing data from 2005:01 to 2021:10, it is concluded that the pressure on the foreign exchange market has an adverse effect on growth in the long duration.

Özet

Bir ülkenin ulusal parasının yüksek volatiliteye sahip olması ve merkez bankası rezervlerinin yetersiz olması döviz piyasası üzerinde baskı oluşturmakta ve ekonomik aktörlerin beklentilerini olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde döviz piyasasındaki baskıların ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkili olup olmadığı nedensellik testleri ile incelenmektedir. 2005:01-2021:10 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak yapılan analizlerden elde edilen bulgulara göre, uzun dönemde döviz piyasasındaki baskının ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

🔖

Cite This Article

ÖZEK, Y., ERGÜR, H. O. (2022). The Causality Test on Exchange Market Pressure on Output in Turkey. Fiscaoeconomia, Cilt: 6 - Sayı: 2, 884–894. https://ajindex.com/articles/516574

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (11)

  1. Aizenman, J. & Binici, M. (2016). Exchange Market Pressure in OECD and Emerging Economies: Domestic vs. External Factors and Capital Flows in the Old and New Normal. Journal of International Money and Finance, 66, 65-87.
  2. Akçoraoğlu, A. (2000). An Analysis of Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Turkey. Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(1). Akkaya, M. (2021). Döviz Piyasası Baskı Endeksi ve Kriz Göstergelerinin Tahmini: Türkiye Uygulaması. Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 23(1), 67-92.
  3. Balakrishnan, R., Danninger, S., Elekdağ, S. & Tytell, I. (2009). The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies. IMF Working Paper, June, 1-52.
  4. Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z. A., & Arslanturk, Y. (2010). Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Causal Nexus Viewed Through a Bootstrap Rolling Window. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398-1410.
  5. Bird, G. & Mandilaras, A. (2006). Regional Heterogeneity in the Relationship Between Fiscal Imbalances and Foreign Exchange Market Pressure. World Development, 34(7), 1171- 1181. Breitung, J. & Candelon, B. (2006). Testing for Short-And Long-Run Causality: A Frequency- Domain Approach. Journal of Econometrics, 132(2), 363-378.
  6. Dayı, F. & Akdemir, E. (2016). Döviz Piyasası Baskısı Modellerinin Yapay Sinir Ağı ile Mukayesesi: Türkiye Uygulaması. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 8(15), 151-168.
  7. Dickey, D. & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 74, 427- 431. Dickey, D. & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-72.
  8. Ersoy, I. (2013). The Role of Private Capital Inflows and the Exchange Market Pressure on Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: The Case of Turkey. South African Journal of Economics, 81(1), 35-51.
  9. Ertem, O. (2011). Küresel Finansal Dalgalanmaların Gelişmekte Olan Ülke Döviz Rezervleri ve Kurları Üzerine Etkisi. Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Piyasalar Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
  10. Feldkircher, M., Horvath, R. & Rusnak, M. (2014). Exchange Market Pressures During the Financial Crisis: A Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 40, 21-41.
  11. Feridun, M. (2010). Capital Reversals and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence from the Autoregressive