SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi / 2014 / Cilt: 15 - Sayı: 1

Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Turkey

TÜRKİYE'DE CARİ AÇIĞIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ

Yılmaz BAYAR
Cüneyt KILIÇ
Feyza ARICA
Pages
451–471
Publication Date
2022-10-11
DOI
—
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Moreover we determined that 78,6% of variation in the current account balance were explained by foreign direct investment inflows, portfolio investments, crude oil prices and total government gross debt stock.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Current account balance is one of the important indicators for the macroeconomic stability and welfare of one country.
📊
Key Findings & Data:This study examines the relationship between current account balance and economic growth, inflation, real effective exchange rate, foreign direct investment inflows, crude oil prices, portfolio investments, total government gross debt stock, rate of exports meeting imports and Borsa Istanbul 100 index in Turkey during the period 2000:Q4 2013:Q3 by using Granger causality test, impulse-response and variance decomposition analyses.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Moreover we determined that 78,6% of variation in the current account balance were explained by foreign direct investment inflows, portfolio investments, crude oil prices and total government gross debt stock.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2000 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

Current account balance is one of the important indicators for the macroeconomic stability and welfare of one country. But however current account deficits have become one of the chronic problems of Turkish economy in recent years. This study examines the relationship between current account balance and economic growth, inflation, real effective exchange rate, foreign direct investment inflows, crude oil prices, portfolio investments, total government gross debt stock, rate of exports meeting imports and Borsa Istanbul 100 index in Turkey during the period 2000:Q4 2013:Q3 by using Granger causality test, impulse-response and variance decomposition analyses. We found that total government gross debt stock, real effective exchange rate, portfolio investments, rate of exports meeting imports and Borsa Istanbul 100 index are Granger causes of current account balance. Moreover we determined that 78,6% of variation in the current account balance were explained by foreign direct investment inflows, portfolio investments, crude oil prices and total government gross debt stock.

Özet

Cari hesap dengesi, bir ülkenin makroekonomik istikrarı ve refahı için önemli göstergelerden birisidir. Buna karşın cari açık son yıllarda Türkiye ekonomisinin kronik bir sorunu haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada Granger nedensellik testi, etki-tepki ve varyans ayrıştırma analizleri kullanılarak Türkiyede 2000:Q4 2013:Q3 döneminde cari işlemler dengesi ile ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon, reel efektif döviz kuru, doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri, ham petrol fiyatları, portföy yatırımları, kamu brüt toplam borç stoku, ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı ve Borsa İstanbul 100 endeksi arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda kamu brüt toplam borç stoku, reel efektif döviz kuru, portföy yatırımları, ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı ve Borsa İstanbul 100 endeksinin cari işlemler dengesinin Granger nedeni olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca cari işlemler dengesindeki değişimin %78,6sının, doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri, portföy yatırımları, ham petrol fiyatları ve kamu brüt toplam borç stoku tarafından açıklandığı belirlenmiştir.

🔖

Cite This Article

BAYAR, Y., KILIÇ, C., ARICA, F. (2022). Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Turkey. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 15 - Sayı: 1, 451–471. https://ajindex.com/articles/480761

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (4)

  1. AGAYEV, Seymur (2013), “Eski Sovyet Ülkelerinde Cari Hesap Dengesi Belirleyicileri ve Petrol Zenginliğinin Neden Olduğu Farklılıklar”, Ege Akademik Bakış, Cilt:13, Sayı:3; 351–365. AKRAM, Muhammad (2011), Do Crude Oil Price Changes Affect Economic Growth of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh?, Economics D-Level Thesis, Högskolan Dalarna. ALEXANDER, Sidney S. (1952), “Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance”, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Staff Papers 2; 263–278. ARISTOVNIK, Aleksander (2007), “Short- and Medium-Term Determinants of Current Account Balances in Middle East and North Africa Countries”, William Davidson Institute, Working Paper Number 862; 1–22. Bank For International Settlements-BIS (Uluslararası Ödeme Bankası), İnternet Adresi: www.bis.org, Erişim Tarihi: 18.10.2013.
  2. BARNES, Sebastian; Jeremy LAWSON ve Arthur RADZIWILL (2010), “Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: A Comparative Perspective”, OECD Economics Department, Working Paper No.826; 1–18. BAYRAKTUTAN, Yusuf ve Işıl DEMİRTAŞ (2011), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt 22, Sayı 2; 1–28. BICKERDIKE, C. F. (1920), “The Instability of Foreign Exchanges”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 30, No. 117; 118-122.
  3. BITZIS, Grigorios; John M. PALEOLOGOS ve Christos PAPAZOGLOU (2008), “The Determinants of the Greek Current Account Deficit: The EMU Experience”, Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, Vol.1, No.1; 105–122. Borsa İstanbul (BİST), İnternet Adresi: www.borsaistanbul.com/veriler, Erişim Tarihi: 19.10.2013.
  4. BUITER, Willem H. (1981), “Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.89; 769–797 CALDERON, Cesar; Alberto CHONG ve Norman LOAYZA (2000), “Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries”, World Bank Policy Research, Working Paper 2398; 1–37. CANIDEMİR, Süleyman; Rahmet USLU, Derya EKİCİ ve Murat YARAT (2011), “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Yapısal ve Dönemsel Belirleyicileri”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım Kongreler Dizisi-VII; 1–27. CHINNA, Menzie D. ve Eswar S. PRASAD (2003), “Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration”, Journal of International Economics, Vol.59; 47– 76. CLOWER, Erica ve Hiro ITO (2012), “The Persistence and Determinants of Current Account Balances: The Implications for Global Rebalancing”, ADBI W