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Journals / Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi / 2007 / Cilt: 62 - Sayı: 4

The Prediction of Banking Crises with Multivariatel Logit Method in Developing Countries

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerdeki Bankacılık Krizlerinin Çok Değişkenli Logit Yöntemiyle Öngörülmesi

Halil ALTINTAŞ
Bülent ÖZ
Pages
1–30
Publication Date
2022-10-11
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Real interest rate, domestic credit growth and public indicators do not seem to have an independent effect.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This paper examines which factors associated with emergence of banking crises in 20 developing countries in 1990-2002 can be useful leading indicators. 16 explanatory variables used in study was inspired by the existing empirical and theoretical literature on banking crises.
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Key Findings & Data:Empirical findings obtained using different multivariate logit models suggest that decrease in international reserve growth, increase in M2 to international reserve and total deposit to GDP and domestic interest rate differential vs. abroad increase the likelihood of banking crises.
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Conclusion & Impact:Real interest rate, domestic credit growth and public indicators do not seem to have an independent effect.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2002 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

This paper examines which factors associated with emergence of banking crises in 20 developing countries in 1990-2002 can be useful leading indicators. 16 explanatory variables used in study was inspired by the existing empirical and theoretical literature on banking crises. They are also related to real sector, which captures the degree of efficient use of credit and changes in the repayment capacity of borrowers, banking sector, which may indicate the existence of deposit runs and a loss of confidence or of the deterioration of banks’ balance sheets in the banking system, and shocks that may directly and indirectly affect the stability of banking sector. Empirical findings obtained using different multivariate logit models suggest that decrease in international reserve growth, increase in M2 to international reserve and total deposit to GDP and domestic interest rate differential vs. abroad increase the likelihood of banking crises. Real interest rate, domestic credit growth and public indicators do not seem to have an independent effect.

Özet

Bu çalışma 1990-2002 yılları arasında gelişmekte olan 20 ülkede bankacılık krizlerinin ortaya çıkmasıyla ilişkili hangi faktörlerin faydalı öncü göstergeler olabileceğini incelemektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan 16 açıklayıcı değişken seçilirken bankacılık krizleri üzerine teorik ve ampirik literatürden yararlanılmıştır. Değişkenler, etkin kredi kullanımını ve kredi kullananların geri ödeme kapasitelerindeki değişimleri temsil eden reel sektör, bankacılık sisteminde aşırı mevduat çekilişlerini ve güven kaybını gösteren veya banka bilançolarının bozulmasını temsil eden bankacılık sektörü ile bankacılık sektörünün istikrarını doğrudan ve dolaylı etkileyen şoklarla ilişkilidir. Farklı çok değişkenli logit modelleri kullanılarak elde edilen ampirik bulgular, uluslararası rezerv büyüklüğünün azalması, M2/uluslararası rezervler ve toplam mevduat/GSYİH oranının artması ve yurtdışı faiz oranı farklılıkları artışının bankacılık krizi olasılığını artırdığını göstermektedir. Reel faiz oranı, yurt içi kredi büyüklüğü ve kamu göstergelerinin de bağımsız etkiye sahip olmadıkları görülmüştür.

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Cite This Article

ALTINTAŞ, H., ÖZ, B. (2022). The Prediction of Banking Crises with Multivariatel Logit Method in Developing Countries. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, Cilt: 62 - Sayı: 4, 1–30. https://ajindex.com/articles/443192

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