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Journals / Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi / 2009 / Cilt: 64 - Sayı: 2

Econometric analysis of relationship between inward foreign direct investment and trade in Turkey: 1996-2007

Türkiye'de doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişi ve dış ticaret arasındaki ilişkinin ekonometrik analizi: 1996-2007

Halil ALTINTAŞ
Pages
1–29
Publication Date
2022-10-11
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The empirical results indicate that there is a positive and significant long-run relationship between FDI and trade (import and export) in bivariate models, although there is only long-run positive relationship between FDI and import in multivariate model, suggesting that multinational enterprises operated in Turkey increase Turkey's export and import in the long run.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:This paper aims to examine long-run and the causal relationships between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade (exports and imports) in Turkey by using VAR methodology and Granger causality tests in both bivariate and multivariate models over the period 1996-2007.
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Key Findings & Data:The empirical results indicate that there is a positive and significant long-run relationship between FDI and trade (import and export) in bivariate models, although there is only long-run positive relationship between FDI and import in multivariate model, suggesting that multinational enterprises operated in Turkey increase Turkey's export and import in the long run.
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Conclusion & Impact:Furthermore, more import and exports lead to more FDI in the long-run.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2007 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

This paper aims to examine long-run and the causal relationships between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade (exports and imports) in Turkey by using VAR methodology and Granger causality tests in both bivariate and multivariate models over the period 1996-2007. The empirical results indicate that there is a positive and significant long-run relationship between FDI and trade (import and export) in bivariate models, although there is only long-run positive relationship between FDI and import in multivariate model, suggesting that multinational enterprises operated in Turkey increase Turkey's export and import in the long run. These results also suggest that there is a complementary relationship between FDI and trade.* In addition, there is a casual links between FDI and trade. The main findings are the one-way short and long-run causality between FDI and import and one-way long-run causality between FDI and export in bivariate models. There is also empirical evidence that both import and export appear to cause FDI in long-run and export causes import in short-run in multivariate models. Policy implication of the paper is that more imports into Turkey lead to more FDI, which, in turn, lead to more export from Turkey to the world. Furthermore, more import and exports lead to more FDI in the long-run.

Özet

Bu çalışma, 1996-2007 dönemi için Türkiye'de doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişi (FDI) ile dış ticaret (ihracat ve ithalat) arasındaki uzun dönem ve nedensellik ilişkisini iki ve çok değişkenli VAR yöntemi ve Granger nedensellik testleriyle incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlarda tek değişkenli modellerde FDI ile ihracat ve ithalat arasında pozitif ve anlamlı ilişkiye rastlanırken, çok değişkenli modelde sadece FDl ile ithalat arasında anlamlı ve pozitif ilişki belirlenmiştir. Bu sonuç Türkiye'de faaliyet gösteren çokuluslu şirketlerin Türkiye'nin ihracat ve ithalatını artırdığını ve FDI'la dış ticaret arasında tamamlayıcılık ilişkisi bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Aynı zamanda çalışmada FDI ile dış ticaret arasında nedensellik ilişkileri de gösterilmiştir. Nedensellikle ilgili olarak iki değişkenli modellerde uzun dönemde FDI ile ithalat ve FDl ile ihracat arasında tek yönlü nedenselliğe rastlanırken, çok değişkenli modellerde ithalat ve ihracatın birlikte FDI'ın nedeni olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlardan hareketle Türkiye'de uzun dönemde ithalat artışı FDI'a, FDI artışı ihracat artışına yol açmaktadır. Ayrıca ithalat ve ihracat artışı birlikte FDI artışına neden olmaktadır.

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Cite This Article

ALTINTAŞ, H. (2022). Econometric analysis of relationship between inward foreign direct investment and trade in Turkey: 1996-2007. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, Cilt: 64 - Sayı: 2, 1–29. https://ajindex.com/articles/443090

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