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Journals / Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi / 2008 / Cilt: 63 - Sayı: 2

The Taylor Rule: An Assessment of Turkish Experience

Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Nejla AKLAN ADANUR
Mehmet NARGELEÇEKENLER
Pages
21–41
Publication Date
2022-10-11
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The results indicate that in reaching the price stability, short-term interest rates have varied consistent with the rule.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The primary aim of this study is to determine under which variables monetary policies are affected and whether monetary policies are conducted under policy rule or not.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In this respect backward-looking reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) was estimated by considering the period after the year of 2002.
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Conclusion & Impact:The results indicate that in reaching the price stability, short-term interest rates have varied consistent with the rule.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2002 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

The primary aim of this study is to determine under which variables monetary policies are affected and whether monetary policies are conducted under policy rule or not. In this respect backward-looking reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) was estimated by considering the period after the year of 2002. The results indicate that in reaching the price stability, short-term interest rates have varied consistent with the rule. The results obtained from reaction function revealed that CBRT does not follow accommodative policies. In terms of flexible inflation targeting regime being conducted in Turkey, our findings showed that CBRT reacted to inflation rate, output-gap and exchange rate while determining the interest rate. The reaction to exchange rate was low consistent with flexible exchange rate regime. This result is consistent with the main aim of CBRT whose primary target is to provide price stability.

Özet

Çalışmanın temel amacı, para politikalarının hangi değişkenlerin (enflasyon, üretim, kur) etkisi altında belirlendiğini ve bu süreçte kural doğrultusunda hareket edilip edilmediğini ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, enflasyon hedeflenmesinin uygulandığı 2002 sonrası için Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası’nın (TCMB) geriye-dönük reaksiyon fonksiyonu tahmin edilmiştir. Taylor kuralı çerçevesinde tahmin edilen reaksiyon fonksiyonu sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’de kısa vadeli faiz oranları fiyat istikrarının sağlanması doğrultusunda kurala uygun değişmektedir. Reaksiyon fonksiyonundan elde edilen sonuçlar, TCMB’nin uyumcu politikalar izlemediğini göstermektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre TCMB faiz belirleme sürecinde, enflasyon oranının dışında üretim açığına ve döviz kuruna tepki vermektedir. Döviz kuruna verilen tepki, dalgalı kur rejimiyle tutarlı bir şekilde düşük çıkmıştır. Bu sonuç, ilgili dönem için öncelikli amacı fiyat istikrarını sağlamak olan TCMB’nin temel hedefi ile uyumludur.

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Cite This Article

ADANUR, N. A., NARGELEÇEKENLER, M. (2022). The Taylor Rule: An Assessment of Turkish Experience. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, Cilt: 63 - Sayı: 2, 21–41. https://ajindex.com/articles/443130

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