SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2019 / Cilt: 21 - Sayı: 1

THE EFFECT OF US-CHINA TRADE WARS ON SHANGHAI STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE INDEX

ABD-ÇİN TİCARET SAVAŞLARININ ŞANGAY MENKUL KIYMETLER BORSASI KOMPOZİT ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Serdar ÖZTÜRK
Buket ALTINÖZ
Pages
59–69
Publication Date
2019-06-28
DOI
—
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Empirical results suggest that an increase in tariffs rate applied by US affect negatively to Shanghai stock index in the long term.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of US import tariffs on Chinese goods and China import tariffs on US goods on Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index for the period from 1991 to 2016.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Empirical results suggest that an increase in tariffs rate applied by US affect negatively to Shanghai stock index in the long term.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:With these results we cannot say whether the US is a winner or loser, but we can say that China is definitely the loser.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2016 Verileri
⚙️Variables:ARDL · Tarife Oranları · Hisse Senedi Getirileri

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of US import tariffs on Chinese goods and China import tariffs on US goods on Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index for the period from 1991 to 2016. It is selected Chinese main macroeconomic variables as control variables. For this purpose, it is used ARDL boundary testing approach in this study. Empirical results suggest that an increase in tariffs rate applied by US affect negatively to Shanghai stock index in the long term. In addition, broad money supply and inflation rate, which are two of the macroeconomic variables used in the analysis, has a positive impact on it. Consequently, the US-China trade war, which based on US import tariffs on Chinese goods, damages for China stock market. With these results we cannot say whether the US is a winner or loser, but we can say that China is definitely the loser.

Özet

Bu çalışmanın amacı, ABD’nin Çin mallarına uyguladığı ithalat tarifeleri ile Çin’in ABD’den ithal ettiği mallar üzerine uyguladığı ithalat tarifelerinin Şangay Menkul Kıymetler Borsası Kompozit Endeksi’ne etkisinin 1991-2016 dönemi için incelenmesidir. Çin’in ana makroekonomik değişkenleri kontrol değişken olarak seçilmiştir. Bu amaçla, çalışmada ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımından faydalanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, ABD tarafından uygulanan tarife oranlarındaki artışın uzun vadede Şangay hisse senedi endeksini olumsuz yönde etkilediğini göstermiştir. Ayrıca analizde kullanılan makroekonomik değişkenlerin ikisi olan M2 para arzı ve enflasyon oranının borsa endeksi üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, ABD’nin Çin mallarına uyguladığı ithalat tarifelerine dayanan ABD-Çin ticaret savaşının Çin borsasına zarar verdiği söylenebilir. Elde edilen sonuçlarla ABD’nin bu savaşın kazananı mı yoksa kaybedeni mi olduğu söylenememekle birlikte, Çin’in kesinlikle kaybeden taraf olduğu söylenebilir.

🔖

Cite This Article

ÖZTÜRK, S., ALTINÖZ, B. (2019). THE EFFECT OF US-CHINA TRADE WARS ON SHANGHAI STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE INDEX. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 21 - Sayı: 1, 59–69. https://ajindex.com/articles/3732

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (13)

  1. Alagidede, P. & Panagiotidis, T. (2012). “Stock returns and inflation: Evidence from quantile regressions”. Economic Letters, 117, 283-286.
  2. Alam, Z. & Rashid, K. (2014). “Time series analysis of the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the stock market returns in Pakistan”. Journal of Yasar University, 9(36), 6261-6380.
  3. Ariff, M., Chung, T. & Shamsher, M. (2012). “Money supply, interest rate, liquidity and share prices: A test of their linkage”. Global Finance Journal, 23(3), 202-220.
  4. Assefa, T. A., Esqueda, O. A. & Mollick, A. V. (2017). “Stock returns and interest rates around the world: A panel data approach”. Journal of Economics and Business, 89, 20-35.
  5. Bahloul, S., Mrouna, M. & Naifar, N. (2017). “The impact of macroeconomic and conventional stock market variables on Islamic index returns under regime switching”. Borsa Istanbul Review, 17(1), 62-74.
  6. Başçı, E. S. & Karaca, S. S. (2013). “The determinants of stock market index: VAR approach to Turkish stock market”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(1), 163-171.
  7. Bissoon, R., Seetanah, B., Bhattu-Babajee, R., Gopy-Ramdhany, N. & Seetah, K. (2016). “Monetary policy impact on stock return: Evidence from growing stock markets”. Theoretical Economic Letters, 6, 1186-1195.
  8. Branson, W. H. (1983). “A model of exchange-rate determination with policy reaction: Evidence from monthly data”. NBER Working Paper No: 1135. Cauchie, S., Hoesli, M. & Isakov, D. (2004). “The determinants of stock returns in a small open economy”. International Review of Economics and Finance, 13, 167-185.
  9. Chakraborty, S., Tang Y. & Wu, L. (2008). “Imports, exports, dollar exposures, and stock returns”. Open Economies Review, 26(5), 1059-1079.
  10. Daelemans, B, Daniels, J. P. & Nourzad, F. (2018). “Free Trade Agreements and Volatility of Stock Returns and Exchange Rates: Evidence from NAFTA”. Open Econ. Rev., 29, 141-163.
  11. Davidson, L. S. & Froyen, R. T. (1982). “Monetary policy and stock returns: Are stock markets efficient?”. Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 3-12.
  12. Dickey, D. A. & W. A. Fuller (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. JSTOR, 74(366). Dickey, D. A., & W. A. Fuller (1981). “Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root”. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  13. Dornbusch, R. & Fischer, S. (1980). “Exchange rates and the current account”. The American Economic Review, 70(5), 960-971. Engle,