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Journals / Maliye Dergisi / 2021 / Sayı: 180

Does Global Financial Cycle Cause Business Cycle in Turkey? A Frequency Domain Analysis

Küresel Finansal Çevrimler Türkiye’de İş Çevrimlerine Neden Olur mu? Bir Frekans Alanı Analizi

Veysel KARAGÖL
Pages
345–362
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings indicate the presence of a unidirectional causality relationship from the global financial cycle to the Turkey’s business cycle.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The impact of financial factors on the real economy is increasing day by day.
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Key Findings & Data:Accompanied with globalization, financial instabilities in central countries can quickly affect developing countries.
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Conclusion & Impact:The findings indicate the presence of a unidirectional causality relationship from the global financial cycle to the Turkey’s business cycle.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

The impact of financial factors on the real economy is increasing day by day. Accompanied with globalization, financial instabilities in central countries can quickly affect developing countries. The aim of this study is to analyze the potential impact of the global financial cycle on the business cycle in Turkey as a developing country. Traditional Granger causality and frequency domain causality tests are used to examine this relationship. The findings indicate the presence of a unidirectional causality relationship from the global financial cycle to the Turkey’s business cycle. Global financial cycle affects the Turkey’s business cycle in the medium and long term. Policy makers should consider global financial cycle in their policy choices for economic stability.

Özet

Finansal faktörlerin reel ekonomi üzerindeki etkisi her geçen günartmaktadır. Buna küreselleşmenin eşlik etmesiyle birlikte merkezülkelerdeki finansal istikrarsızlıklar, gelişmekte olan ülkeleri hızlıca etkisialtına alabilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, küresel finansal çevrimleringelişmekte olan ülke konumundaki Türkiye’nin iş çevrimlerine potansiyeletkisini analiz etmektir. Bu ilişkinin sınanmasında, geleneksel Grangernedensellik ve frekans alanı nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular,küresel finansal çevrimlerden Türkiye’nin iş çevrimlerine doğru tek yönlübir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Küresel finansalçevrimler, orta ve uzun dönemde Türkiye’nin iş çevrimlerini etkilemektedir.Politika yapıcılar, ekonomide istikrar için, politika tercihlerinde küreselfinansal çevrimleri göz önünde bulundurmalıdır.

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Cite This Article

KARAGÖL, V. (2021). Does Global Financial Cycle Cause Business Cycle in Turkey? A Frequency Domain Analysis. Maliye Dergisi, Sayı: 180, 345–362. https://ajindex.com/articles/357376

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