Journals / Ulusal Cerrahi Dergisi / 2007 / Cilt: 23 - Sayı: 4

Gail model for determination of the risk factors of breast cancer

Meme kanseri için risk belirlenmesinde Gail modeli

Pages
129–135
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

It has come to a decision that the main risk factors that determine the risk of a breast cancer development in Turkish Society are familial or genetic factors rather than the hormonal ones, and with the increasing age risk of breast cancer development increases evidently.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:Purpose: The aim of the presented study was to determine the hormonal and familial risk factors that might play a role in development of breast cancer in Turkish population and to evaluate the reliability of Gail Model in our society.
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Key Findings & Data:Materials and Methods: Patients over 35 years old and in whom all breast cancer risk factors are known were selected as the study group, among them; patients who had breast biopsy at least 5 years ago with a diagnosis of non-proliferative lesion was called as Group 1; control patients as Group 2; patients in Group 1 and 2 who were free of breast cancer at the end of the 5 years follow up were called as Group 3; and the patients who had been operated for breast cancer were named as Group 4.
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Conclusion & Impact:It has come to a decision that the main risk factors that determine the risk of a breast cancer development in Turkish Society are familial or genetic factors rather than the hormonal ones, and with the increasing age risk of breast cancer development increases evidently.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of the presented study was to determine the hormonal and familial risk factors that might play a role in development of breast cancer in Turkish population and to evaluate the reliability of Gail Model in our society. Materials and Methods: Patients over 35 years old and in whom all breast cancer risk factors are known were selected as the study group, among them; patients who had breast biopsy at least 5 years ago with a diagnosis of non-proliferative lesion was called as Group 1; control patients as Group 2; patients in Group 1 and 2 who were free of breast cancer at the end of the 5 years follow up were called as Group 3; and the patients who had been operated for breast cancer were named as Group 4. Individual risk of breast cancer was calculated for 5 years by Gail Model for the patients in Group 1 and 2, and the patients in whom breast cancer developed during this time period were determined within these groups. Besides, for the determination of the risk factors in development of breast cancer in Turkish Society, all known risk factors of the patients in Group 3 and 4 were evaluated with the multiple regression test. Results: In Group 1 (n=343), breast cancer developed in the 2.6% of low-risk patients according to Gail Model, while the rate was 12% in high-risk patients (RR=5). In Group 2 (n=601), breast cancer developed in 4.7% of the low-risk patients, and the corresponding rate was 11.7% in high-risk group (RR=2.6). After evaluation of all the risk factors of Group 3 (n=896) and Group 4 (n=630), risk factors which were found to be significant were the first degree family history for breast cancer; second degree family history for breast cancer, nulliparity, nonbreast-feeding and age (p<0.05). Conclusions: It is found that Gail Model is a reliable model in calculation of individual risk for development of a breast cancer for Turkish Society. It has come to a decision that the main risk factors that determine the risk of a breast cancer development in Turkish Society are familial or genetic factors rather than the hormonal ones, and with the increasing age risk of breast cancer development increases evidently.

Özet

Amaç: Bu çalışmada, Türk toplumunda meme kanseri için önemli olabilecek hormonal ve ailesel risk faktörlerini ortaya koymak ve Gail modelinin toplumumuzdaki güvenilirliğini değerlendirmek amaçlanmıştır. Yöntem: Çalışmada, 35 yaşın üzerinde, tüm risk faktör verileri bilinen hastalardan, en az 5 yıl önce meme biyopsisi yapılan ve non-proliferatif lezyon saptanan hastalar Grup 1'i, kontrol hastaları Grup 2'yi, Grup 1 ve 2'de 5 yıllık takip sonunda meme kanseri gelişmediği gösterilen hastalar Grup 3‘ü, meme kanseri nedeniyle ameliyat edilen hastalar da, Grup 4'ü oluşturdu. Grup 1 ve 2'deki hastaların Gail modeli ile bireysel 5 yıllık meme kanseri riskleri hesaplandı ve bu gruplarda 5 yıl sonunda meme kanseri gelişen hastalar belirlendi. Meme kanseri gelişiminde Türk toplumunun risk faktörlerinin belirlenmesi amacıyla Grup 3 ve Grup 4'deki hastaların bilinen tüm risk faktörleri çoklu regresyon testi ile değerlendirildi. Bulgular: Grup 1'de (n=343) 5 yıl içinde Gail modeline göre düşük riske sahip hastaların %2.6'sında meme kanseri gelişirken, yüksek riske sahip hastaların %12'sinde meme kanseri saptandı (RR=5). Grup 2'de ise (n=601) düşük riske sahip hastaların %4.7'sinde meme kanseri gelişirken, yüksek riskli hastaların %11.7'sinde meme kanseri tesbit edildi (RR=2.6). Grup 3 (n=896) ve Grup 4'ün (n=630) tüm risk faktörleri değerlendirildiğinde 1. derece yakınlarda meme kanseri hikayesi, 2. derece yakınlarda meme kanseri hikayesi, nulliparite, emzirmeme ve yaş (p<0.05), anlamlı risk faktörleri olarak bulundu. Sonuç: Gail modelinin meme kanseri gelişimi açısından, bireysel risk hesaplanmasında Türk toplumu için güvenilir bir model olduğu görülmüştür. Türk toplumunda meme kanseri gelişme riskini belirleyen başlıca faktörlerin ailesel ya da genetik faktörler olduğu, yaş ile meme kanseri gelişme riskinin belirgin arttığı sonucuna varılmıştır.

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Cite This Article

KARAKAYALI, F. Y., EKİCİ, Y., SEVMİŞ, Ş., PEHLİVAN, S., ARAT, Z., MORAY, G. (2007). Gail model for determination of the risk factors of breast cancer. Ulusal Cerrahi Dergisi, Cilt: 23 - Sayı: 4, 129–135. https://ajindex.com/articles/325734

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