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Journals / Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi / 2011 / Cilt: 48 - Sayı: 562

Current account sustainability of Turkey’s economy: Bounds testing approach

Türkiye ekonomisinde cari açığın sürdürülebilirliği: Sınır testi yaklaşımı

İsmet GÖÇER
Mehmet MERCAN
Pages
33–51
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

As a result of the analysis, it was found that current account deficit in Turkey can be sustainable in a weaker form.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Current account deficit, which frequently comes into question and being discus sed in Turkey’s economy, is one of the most important subjects and main reason of economic crisis.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Deficits in current account balance deteriorate investment saving balance in the country.
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Conclusion & Impact:As a result of the analysis, it was found that current account deficit in Turkey can be sustainable in a weaker form.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2001 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

Current account deficit, which frequently comes into question and being discus sed in Turkey’s economy, is one of the most important subjects and main reason of economic crisis. Deficits in current account balance deteriorate investment saving balance in the country. To meet investment and consumption demand, the country will have to find new loans. This case will increase country’s foreign debt burden, will be perceived as a sign of crisis by foreign investors, and will lead to foreign capital outflow from the country. Therefore, current account is an important macroeconomic variable for policy makers. In this study, sustainability of Turkey’s current account deficit was examined with bounds testing approach developed by Peseran et. al (2001) with import and export data of 1992:M01–2010:M11 period using intertemporal external balance constraint model developed by Husted (1992). As a result of the analysis, it was found that current account deficit in Turkey can be sustainable in a weaker form.

Özet

Türkiye ekonomisinde sıkça gündeme gelen ve tartışılan cari işlemler açığı, eko nominin en önemli konularından ve krizlerin temel nedenlerinden biridir. Cari işlemler hesabinda meydana gelen açıklar, yurt içinde yatırım-tasarruf dengesini bozmaktadır. Yatırım ve tüketim talebini karşılayabilmek için ülkenin yeni borçlar bulması gerekmektedir. Bu durum ise ülkenin dış borcunu artıracak, yabanci yatırımcılar tarafindan kriz belirtisi olarak algılanacak ve ülkeden yabancı sermaye çıkışına neden olacaktır. Bu nedenle cari işlemler hesabı, karar vericiler için önemli bir makroekonomik değişkendir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin cari işlemler açığının sürdürülebilirliği, Husted (1992) tarafından geliştirilen zamanlararası dış denge kısıtı modeli kullanılarak 1992:M01–2010:M11 dönemi ihracat ve ithalat verileriyle, Pesaran vd. (2001) tarafından geliştirilen sınır testi yaklaşımıyla incelenmiştir. Analiz sonucunda, Türkiye’de cari açığın zayıf formda sürdürülebilir olduğu bulunmuştur.

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Cite This Article

GÖÇER, İ., MERCAN, M. (2011). Current account sustainability of Turkey’s economy: Bounds testing approach. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, Cilt: 48 - Sayı: 562, 33–51. https://ajindex.com/articles/224217

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