SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi / 2010 / Cilt: 47 - Sayı: 540

The Relationship Between Crude Oil Import Price and Inflation: The Analysis of Turkey

Ham Petrol İthal Fiyatiyla Enflasyon Arasindaki İlişki: Türkiye Analizi*

OSMAN PEKER
Mehmet MERCAN
Pages
31–39
DOI
—
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Therefore, this survey doesn't support the public opinion which claims that oil prices trigger inflation.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this survey, the relationship between crude oil import price and inflation has been studied via Engle-Granger co-integration method using the data between January 1992 and March 2009.
📊
Key Findings & Data:According to empirical findings of the survey, the relationship between price of crude oil import and inflation is not statistically significant in the long term.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Therefore, this survey doesn't support the public opinion which claims that oil prices trigger inflation.
🔬Design:Survey & Empirical Study
📍Scope:2009 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

In this survey, the relationship between crude oil import price and inflation has been studied via Engle-Granger co-integration method using the data between January 1992 and March 2009. According to empirical findings of the survey, the relationship between price of crude oil import and inflation is not statistically significant in the long term. Although the result of evaluation for the short term is significant, it is found at a marginal level. Therefore, this survey doesn't support the public opinion which claims that oil prices trigger inflation.

Özet

Bu çalişmada, Türkiye'de ham petrol ithal fiyatiyla enflasyon arasindaki ilişki, Engle-Granger eş-bütünleşme yöntemi yardimiyla, Ocak 1992-Mart 2009 dönemi verileri kullanilarak araştirilmiştir. Çalişmanin ampirik bulgularina göre, uzun dönemde ham petrol ithal fiyatiyla enflasyon arasindaki ilişki istatistiki olarak anlamsiz çikmiştir. Kisa dönem dinamiği açisindan değerlendirildiğinde ise; anlamli bir ilişki bulunmuş olmasina rağmen marjinal düzeyde olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dolayisiyla bu çalişmada, petrol fiyatlarinin enflasyona neden olduğu yönündeki genel kani destek bulmamiştir.

🔖

Cite This Article

PEKER, O., MERCAN, M. (2010). The Relationship Between Crude Oil Import Price and Inflation: The Analysis of Turkey. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, Cilt: 47 - Sayı: 540, 31–39. https://ajindex.com/articles/224156

References (15)

  1. BOHI, Douglas and Michael, TOMAN; (1993), "Energy Security Externalities and Policies", Energy Policy, 21(11), pp. 1093 BOHI, Douglas; (1991), "On the Macroeconomic Effects of En- ergy Price Shocks," Resources and Energy, 13, pp. 145-162
  2. CHEN, Shiu-Sheng; (2009), "Oil Price Pass-Through Into Inflation", Energy Economics, Vol. 31, pp. 126-133.
  3. DICKEY, David and Wayne A. FULLER; (1979), "Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, pp. 431. ENDERS, Walter; (1995),
  4. Applied Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Sons, USA. ENGLE, Robert F. and Clive W. J. GRANGER; (1987); "Co Integration and Error Correction: Represention, estimation and Testing", Econometrica, (55) pp. 251-276.
  5. GREGORIO, José De; Oscar LANDERRETCHE and Chris- topher NEILSON; (2007), "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation", Economia, pp. 155-160.
  6. HAMILTON, James D.; (1983), "Oil and the Macroecono- my since World War II", Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), pp.228-248.
  7. HAMILTON, James D.; (1996), "This is What Happend to the Oil Price Macroeconomy Relationship", Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), pp. 215-220.
  8. HOOKER, Mark A.; (1999), "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications Versus Changes in Regime", Federal Reserve Board, (71), pp. 1-13.
  9. HOOKER, Mark, A.; (1996), "What Happend to the Oil Price Macroeconomy Relationship", Journal of Monetary Economics, (2), pp. 195-213.
  10. HUNTINGTON, Hillard G.; (1998), "Crude Oil Price and U.S. Economic Performance: Where Does The Asymmetric Re- side", Energy Journal, 43, pp. 1-24
  11. KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut ve Bengi KİBRİTÇİOĞLU; (1999), "Ham Petrol ve Akaryakıt Ürünü Fiyat Artışlarının Türkiye'deki Enflasyonist Etkileri", T.C. Başbakanlık Hazine Müsteşarlığı, Araştırma ve İnceleme Dizisi, 21. LEBLANCK, Michael and Menzie D. CHINN; (2004), "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Coun- tries", Business Economics, 4, pp. 38-40.
  12. MORK, Knut A.; (1989), "Oil and the Macroeconomy when Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, 97, pp. 740-744.
  13. MORK, Knut A.; (1994), "Business Cycles and the Oil Market," Energy Journal, 15 Special Issue, pp. 15-38.
  14. MORY, Javier F.; (1993), "Oil Price and Economic Activity: Is The Relationship Symetric?", The Energy Journal, 14(4), pp. 161. SERPER, Özer; (2000),
  15. Uygulamalı İstatistik II, Ezgi Kitabevi,Genişletilmiş 4 Baskı, İzmir.