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Journals / Kamu Ekonomisi ve Kamu Mali Yönetimi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2

VULNERABILITY IN AIR TRANSPORTATION IN THE CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS: THE 2015 TÜRKİYE–RUSSIA AIRCRAFT CRISIS

JEOPOLİTİK GERİLİMLER BAĞLAMINDA HAVA TAŞIMACILIĞINDAKİ HASSASİYET: 2015 TÜRKİYE–RUSYA UÇAK KRİZİ

Ahmet Ertek(KTO KARATAY ÜNİVERSİTESİ, UYGULAMALI BİLİMLER YÜKSEKOKULU, PİLOTAJ BÖLÜMÜ)0000-0002-8156-5075
Pages
506–524
Publication Date
2026-10-28
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings reveal declines in international passenger and flight traffic, particularly at tourism-focused airports, while control group airports remain relatively stable.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines the effects of geopolitical crises on air transport by analyzing differences in flight patterns across destinations.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Focusing on the 2015 Turkey–Russia aircraft crisis, the research evaluates its impacts at the airport level using quantitative indicators.
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Conclusion & Impact:The findings reveal declines in international passenger and flight traffic, particularly at tourism-focused airports, while control group airports remain relatively stable.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2015 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Havaalanı · Hava Taşımacılığı · Jeopolitik Risk

Abstract

This study examines the effects of geopolitical crises on air transport by analyzing differences in flight patterns across destinations. Focusing on the 2015 Turkey–Russia aircraft crisis, the research evaluates its impacts at the airport level using quantitative indicators. Comparisons are made between tourism-oriented airports and a control group characterized by lower tourism dependence. The study adopts a quantitative approach, utilizing secondary data from the State Airports Authority (DHMI), including aircraft, passenger, and cargo traffic between 2015 and 2017. The effects of the crisis are assessed through changes in domestic and international traffic pre, during, and post crisis. The findings reveal declines in international passenger and flight traffic, particularly at tourism-focused airports, while control group airports remain relatively stable. Domestic traffic partially offsets these losses, whereas cargo traffic shows a more variable pattern. Recovery dynamics differ across airports depending on demand structure.

Özet

Bu çalışma, uçuş düzenlerinin destinasyonlar arasında nasıl farklılık gösterdiğini analiz ederek jeopolitik krizlerin hava taşımacılığı üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. 2015 Türkiye-Rusya uçak krizine odaklanan araştırma, nicel göstergeler kullanarak bu krizin havaalanı düzeyindeki etkilerini değerlendirmektedir. Turizm odaklı havalimanları, turizme bağımlılığı daha düşük olan bir kontrol grubuyla karşılaştırılmıştır. Çalışma, 2015 ile 2017 yılları arasındaki uçak, yolcu ve kargo trafiği dâhil olmak üzere Devlet Havalimanları İdaresi’nden (DHMİ) elde edilen ikincil verileri kullanarak nicel bir yaklaşım benimsemiştir. Krizin etkileri, kriz öncesi, sırası ve sonrasında iç ve dış hat trafiğindeki değişiklikler üzerinden değerlendirilmektedir. Bulgular, özellikle turizm odaklı havalimanlarında uluslararası yolcu ve uçuş trafiğinde düşüşler olduğunu ortaya koyarken, kontrol grubu havalimanlarında ise nispeten istikrarlı bir seyir izlendiğini göstermektedir. İç hat trafiği bu kayıpları kısmen telafi ederken, kargo trafiği daha değişken bir seyir sergilemektedir. Talep yapısına bağlı olarak, havalimanları arasında toparlanma dinamikleri farklılık göstermektedir.

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Cite This Article

Ertek, A. (2026). VULNERABILITY IN AIR TRANSPORTATION IN THE CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS: THE 2015 TÜRKİYE–RUSSIA AIRCRAFT CRISIS. Kamu Ekonomisi ve Kamu Mali Yönetimi Dergisi, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 506–524. https://doi.org/10.71284/jpepfm.20266212

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