Russia’s Foreign Policy toward Georgia in the Age of Uncertainty: A Neoclassical Realist Analysis

Abstract

The dissolution of the Soviet Union altered Russia’s geographical borders while simultaneously reinforcing its historical memory. Russian policy toward the states that seceded from the Soviet Union has placed these countries in vulnerable positions in terms of security, economic stability, and both domestic and foreign policy orientations. Their efforts to align with Western policies have rendered Russia’s foreign policy toward former Soviet republics increasingly coercive. This dynamic has contributed to Georgia—having gained independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union—remaining in an age of uncertainty. Georgia constitutes a critical focal point in Russian foreign policy. Offering strategic access to the Black Sea and occupying a pivotal position in the Caucasus, Georgia represents a country of considerable geopolitical significance. An analysis of the underlying causes of Russia’s assertive policy toward Georgia provides guidance for understanding Georgia’s future foreign policy trajectory within this context of uncertainty. This study analyzes Russia’s foreign policy toward Georgia through the lens of neoclassical realism within foreign policy analysis. The theory emphasizes both domestic-level factors and independent variables derived from the international system. By preventing a single-centered mode of analysis, this approach enables a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of foreign policy behavior. Neoclassical realism conceptualizes foreign policy as the dependent variable, while the effects stemming from the global system and regional relations constitute the independent variables; it further incorporates state-specific domestic factors into the analysis. Employing a mixed methodological framework grounded in neoclassical realism, the study examines Russia’s foreign policy toward Georgia with particular emphasis on domestic factors. These domestic variables include historical memory, identity, the Orthodox Church, leadership, regime and government structure, and geopolitics. Ultimately, the findings demonstrate that domestic factors constitute the most significant determinants of Russia’s foreign policy toward Georgia.