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Journals / Uluslararası Ekonomi Siyaset İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3 Özel Sayı

Impact of Physical and Transitional Climate Risks on Bank Performance: Causality Analysis in the Turkish Banking Sector

Fiziksel ve Geçiş İklim Risklerinin Banka Performansı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Nedensellik Analizi

Seda Turnacıgil(TOROS UNIVERSITY)0000-0002-8573-8412
Pages
131–142
Publication Date
2025-07-02
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

This study aims to make an original contribution to the literature by examining the effect of climate risks on the financial performance of banks.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this study, the effect of climate risk index on bank financial performance was examined using the data of eleven deposit banks operating in Türkiye and traded on the stock exchange between the periods of 2006:1-2024:4.
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Key Findings & Data:In the study, climate risks were considered in two dimensions as physical risks and transition climate risks, and active return, return on equity and stock return were determined as bank performance indicators.
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Conclusion & Impact:This study aims to make an original contribution to the literature by examining the effect of climate risks on the financial performance of banks.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2006 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Banka · iklim riskleri · sürdürülebilirlik

Abstract

In this study, the effect of climate risk index on bank financial performance was examined using the data of eleven deposit banks operating in Türkiye and traded on the stock exchange between the periods of 2006:1-2024:4. Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test was used in the study. In the study, climate risks were considered in two dimensions as physical risks and transition climate risks, and active return, return on equity and stock return were determined as bank performance indicators. In the study, there is a unidirectional and statistically significant causality from the physical climate risk index to stock returns, but there is no significant relationship between transition risks and the dependent variable. This situation shows that physical risks can directly affect stock prices in the short term by affecting investor behavior. In addition, due to the long-term structure of other climate risks, no significant causality was observed in the analyzed period. The results also show that physical climate risks are priced in capital markets in Türkiye, but the effect of transition risks is limited. This study aims to make an original contribution to the literature by examining the effect of climate risks on the financial performance of banks.

Özet

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren ve borsada işlem gören on bir adet mevduat bankasının 2006:1-2024:4 dönemleri arasındaki verileri kullanılarak iklim riski endeksinin banka finansal performansları üzerindeki etkisi Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel nedensellik testi ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmada iklim riskleri fiziksel riskler ve geçiş iklim riskleri olarak iki boyutta ele alınmış, aktif karlılık, öz sermaye karlılığı ve hisse senedi getirisi banka performans göstergeleri olarak belirlenmiştir. Çalışmada, fiziksel iklim riski endeksinden hisse senedi getirilerine doğru tek yönlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir nedenselliğe rastlanırken, geçiş riskleri ile bağımlı değişkenler arasında herhangi bir anlamlı ilişki bulgulanmamıştır. Bu durum fiziksel risklerin yatırımcı davranışlarını etkileyerek kısa vadede hisse senedi fiyatlarını direkt olarak etkileyebildiğini göstermektedir. Bunun yanında geçiş iklim risklerinin uzun vadeli yapısı nedeniyle analiz yapılan dönemde anlamlı bir nedensellik gözlemlenmemiştir. Sonuçlar ayrıca Türkiye’de fiziksel iklim risklerinin sermaye piyasalarında fiyatlandığını ancak geçiş risklerinin etkisinin sınırlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu çalışma bankaların finansal performansına iklim riskleri etkisini inceleyerek literatüre özgün bir katkı sunmayı hedeflemektedir.

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Cite This Article

Turnacıgil, S. (2025). Impact of Physical and Transitional Climate Risks on Bank Performance: Causality Analysis in the Turkish Banking Sector. Uluslararası Ekonomi Siyaset İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Dergisi, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3 Özel Sayı, 131–142. https://doi.org/10.59445/ijephss.1710806

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