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Journals / Kırklareli Üniversitesi Mühendislik ve Fen Bilimleri Dergisi / 2025 / Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2

Time Series–Based Machine Learning Models for Forecasting Programming Language Popularity on the GitHub Projects (2011–2021)

Zaman Serisi Tabanlı Makine Öğrenmesi Modelleri ile GitHub Projelerindeki Programlama Dili Popülerliğinin Tahmini (2011–2021)

Bora Uğurlu(ÇANAKKALE ONSEKİZ MART ÜNİVERSİTESİ, MÜHENDİSLİK FAKÜLTESİ, BİLGİSAYAR MÜHENDİSLİĞİ BÖLÜMÜ)0000-0001-6769-9563
Bahadir Karasulu(ÇANAKKALE ONSEKİZ MART ÜNİVERSİTESİ, MÜHENDİSLİK FAKÜLTESİ, BİLGİSAYAR MÜHENDİSLİĞİ BÖLÜMÜ)0000-0001-8524-874X
Pages
351–365
Publication Date
2025-12-31
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings indicate that Logistic Regression (AUC = 0.996), Random Forest (AUC = 0.994), and SVM (AUC = 0.988) provide strong discriminative performance, whereas Decision Trees and Gradient Boosting remain weaker in terms of ROC-AUC despite achieving high accuracy.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this study, popularity trends of programming languages were predicted using time-series–based machine learning methods on GitHub data covering 2011–2021.
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Key Findings & Data:The integrated dataset, compiled from three different sources, contains counts of repositories, pull requests (PRs), and issues at the language–year–quarter level; by consolidating metrics from multiple sources into a single timeline, it enables quarter-based modeling for each language.
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Conclusion & Impact:The findings indicate that Logistic Regression (AUC = 0.996), Random Forest (AUC = 0.994), and SVM (AUC = 0.988) provide strong discriminative performance, whereas Decision Trees and Gradient Boosting remain weaker in terms of ROC-AUC despite achieving high accuracy.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2011–2021 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Programlama Dilleri · Makine Öğrenmesi · Zaman Serisi Analizi

Abstract

In this study, popularity trends of programming languages were predicted using time-series–based machine learning methods on GitHub data covering 2011–2021. The integrated dataset, compiled from three different sources, contains counts of repositories, pull requests (PRs), and issues at the language–year–quarter level; by consolidating metrics from multiple sources into a single timeline, it enables quarter-based modeling for each language. Following feature engineering, logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, support vector machines (SVM), and gradient boosting were applied. The findings indicate that Logistic Regression (AUC = 0.996), Random Forest (AUC = 0.994), and SVM (AUC = 0.988) provide strong discriminative performance, whereas Decision Trees and Gradient Boosting remain weaker in terms of ROC-AUC despite achieving high accuracy. In this context, reporting accuracy together with ROC-AUC makes differences in discriminative power across methods more apparent. Moreover, the analyses confirm the long-term rise of languages such as Python and JavaScript; decision trees and gradient boosting yield more balanced results in capturing languages that become prominent during rare periods.

Özet

Bu çalışmada GitHub platformunda 2011–2021 dönemine ait farklı programlama dillerinin depo (repository), çekme isteği (PR) ve sorun (issue) verileri kullanılarak, dillerin popülerliği zaman serisi tabanlı makine öğrenmesi yöntemleriyle tahmin edilmiştir. Üç farklı kaynaktan bütünleştirilen veri kümesi, dil–yıl–çeyrek düzeyinde PR, issue ve depo sayılarını içermekte; farklı kaynaklardan elde edilen metrikler tek bir zaman çizelgesinde birleştirilerek her dil için çeyreklik gözlemler üzerinden modelleme yapılmasına olanak vermektedir. Öznitelik mühendisliği sonrasında lojistik regresyon, karar ağaçları, rastgele orman, destek vektör makineleri ve gradyan artırma yöntemleri uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, Lojistik Regresyonun (AUC=0,996), Rastgele Ormanın (AUC=0,994) ve SVM’nin (AUC=0,988) güçlü ayırt edicilik sağladığını; Karar Ağaçları ve Gradyan Artırmanın ise yüksek doğruluk değerlerine rağmen ROC-AUC açısından daha zayıf kaldığını göstermektedir. Bu kapsamda, doğruluk ile ROC-AUC’nin birlikte raporlanması yöntemler arasındaki ayrım gücünü daha görünür kılmaktadır. Ayrıca analizler, Python ve JavaScript gibi dillerin uzun vadeli yükselişini doğrulamış, karar ağaçları ve gradyan artırma nadir dönemlerde öne çıkan dilleri yakalamada daha dengeli sonuçlar sunmuştur.

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Cite This Article

Uğurlu, B., Karasulu, B. (2025). Time Series–Based Machine Learning Models for Forecasting Programming Language Popularity on the GitHub Projects (2011–2021). Kırklareli Üniversitesi Mühendislik ve Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 351–365. https://doi.org/10.34186/klujes.1790613

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