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Journals / JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy / 2026 / Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1

Whales And Retail Attention: Dual Channels of Bitcoin Return Dynamics

Balinalar ve Perakende Yatırımcı Dikkati: Bitcoin Getiri Dinamiklerinde İkili Kanallar

Ahmet Furkan Sak(BURDUR MEHMET AKİF ERSOY ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-6713-5773
Pages
465–474
Publication Date
2026-06-25
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Overall, Bitcoin price formation operates through two channels: large-holder order flow and retail-driven attention.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines how whale transactions and investor attention affect Bitcoin returns.
📊
Key Findings & Data:An event-study framework with forward cumulative abnormal returns over 1, 7, 14, and 28 days is applied using 2,647 daily observations from January 2018 to March 2025.
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Conclusion & Impact:Overall, Bitcoin price formation operates through two channels: large-holder order flow and retail-driven attention.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2018 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Bitcoin · Balina işlemleri · Yatırımcı dikkati

Abstract

This study examines how whale transactions and investor attention affect Bitcoin returns. An event-study framework with forward cumulative abnormal returns over 1, 7, 14, and 28 days is applied using 2,647 daily observations from January 2018 to March 2025. Data are obtained from on-chain statistics for the top 100 non-custodial wallets and normalized Google Trends. Whale activity generates statistically and economically significant effects, with event-day returns exceeding non-event days by 0.79% (7 days), 1.66% (14 days), and 2.44% (28 days). Attention shocks adjust more slowly, showing no immediate impact but return increases of 1.76% after 14 days and 2.36% after 28 days. Overall, Bitcoin price formation operates through two channels: large-holder order flow and retail-driven attention.

Özet

Bu çalışma, balina işlemlerinin ve yatırımcı dikkatinin Bitcoin getirileri üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. 2018 Ocak–2025 Mart dönemine ait 2.647 günlük gözlem kullanılarak, 1, 7, 14 ve 28 gün sonrası ileriye dönük kümülatif anormal getiriler üzerinden bir olay çalışması yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Veriler, ilk 100 saklama dışı cüzdana ait zincir üstü istatistikler ile normalize edilmiş Google Trends verilerinden elde edilmiştir. Balina faaliyetlerinin ekonomik ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkiler ürettiği, olay günlerinde getirilerin sırasıyla %0,79 (7 gün), %1,66 (14 gün) ve %2,44 (28 gün) daha yüksek olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dikkat şokları anlık bir etki göstermemekte, daha gecikmeli biçimde 14 ve 28 gün ufuklarında sırasıyla %1,76 ve %2,36 oranında artışlara yol açmaktadır. Bulgular, Bitcoin fiyat oluşumunun büyük yatırımcı işlemleri ve perakende yatırımcı dikkati olmak üzere iki kanaldan gerçekleştiğini göstermektedir.

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Cite This Article

Sak, A. F. (2026). Whales And Retail Attention: Dual Channels of Bitcoin Return Dynamics. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 465–474. https://ajindex.com/articles/1504093

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