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Journals / Karadeniz Uluslararası Bilimsel Dergi / 2026 / Sayı: 65

THE EFFECT OF ABSENCE OF TERRORISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH VARIABLES ON TOURIST ARRIVALS: THE CASE OF MENA COUNTRIES

TERÖR YOKLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME DEĞİŞKENLERİNİN TURİST VARIŞLARINA ETKİSİ: MENA ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Muhammet Nimet Çavuş(AYDIN ADNAN MENDERES ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-0860-7643
Pages
22–34
Publication Date
2025-03-24
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the estimation results, an increase in political stability, the absence of violence/terrorism, and economic growth leads to an increase in tourist arrivals to MENA countries.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines the impact of economic growth, political stability, and the absence of violence/terrorism on tourist arrivals in 15 countries within the MENA region.
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Key Findings & Data:The dataset used in the study covers a 22-year period from 2002 to 2023.
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Conclusion & Impact:According to the estimation results, an increase in political stability, the absence of violence/terrorism, and economic growth leads to an increase in tourist arrivals to MENA countries.
🔬Design:Review & Systematic Survey
📍Scope:2002 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Ekonomik büyümé · Terör yokluğu · Turist varışları

Abstract

This study examines the impact of economic growth, political stability, and the absence of violence/terrorism on tourist arrivals in 15 countries within the MENA region. The dataset used in the study covers a 22-year period from 2002 to 2023. The aim of the study is to analyze the effects of political stability, the absence of violence/terrorism, and economic growth on tourist arrivals in the selected 15 MENA countries using an appropriate panel data model. The literature review indicates that the model developed in this study has not been previously estimated. To determine the appropriate panel data model for estimating the research model, cross-sectional dependence tests, unit root tests, the Hausman test, heteroskedasticity tests, and autocorrelation tests were conducted. The results of these assumption tests indicate the presence of cross-sectional dependence, heteroskedasticity, and first-order autocorrelation. Therefore, the Flexible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimator, which accounts for these assumptions, was employed to estimate the research model. According to the estimation results, an increase in political stability, the absence of violence/terrorism, and economic growth leads to an increase in tourist arrivals to MENA countries.

Özet

Bu çalışma, MENA bölgesinde yer alan 15 ülkede ekonomik büyüme, siyasi istikrar ve şiddet/terör yokluğu göstergesinin turist varışları üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Çalışma kapsamında kullanılan veri seti, 2002-2023 yılları arasındaki 22 yıllık süreci kapsamaktadır. Araştırmanın amacı, belirlenen 15 MENA ñülkesi için turist varışları üzerinde siyasi istikrar ve şiddet/terör yokluğu göstergesi ile ekonomik büyümeyi uygun panel veri modeli ile analiz etmektir. Literatür taraması sonucunda, çalışmada oluşturulan modelin daha önce tahmin edilmediği görülmüştür. Araştırma modelinin tahmini için uygun panel veri modelinin belirlenmesi amacıyla yatay kesit bağımlılığı testi, birim kök testleri, Hausman testi, heteroskedastisite testi ve otokorelasyon testi uygulanmıştır. Bu varsayım testleri sonucunda, modelde birimler arası yatay kesit bağımlılığı, heteroskedastisite ve birinci dereceden otokorelasyon olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu nedenle, araştırma modelinin tahmininde bu varsayımları karşılayan Esnek Genelleştirilmiş EKK (FGLS) tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Model tahmin sonuçlarına göre, siyasi istikrar ve şiddet/terör yokluğu göstergesindeki ve ekonomik büyümeye ilişkin artışlar, MENA ülkelerine yönelik turist varışlarını arttırmaktadır.

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Cite This Article

Çavuş, M. N. (2025). THE EFFECT OF ABSENCE OF TERRORISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH VARIABLES ON TOURIST ARRIVALS: THE CASE OF MENA COUNTRIES. Karadeniz Uluslararası Bilimsel Dergi, Sayı: 65, 22–34. https://doi.org/10.17498/kdeniz.1630081

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