SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Fiscaoeconomia / 2026 / Volume: 10 Issue: 1

Is Gibson Paradox Valid for Türkiye? Nonlinear Time Series Application

Gibson Paradoksu Türkiye İçin Geçerli mi? Doğrusal Olmayan Zaman Serisi Uygulaması

Yeşim Kubar(FIRAT ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-3439-9430
Seyit Taha Ketenci(SELÇUK ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-1230-5795
Yasemin Çiçek(FIRAT ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0009-0008-6744-6601
Pages
—
Publication Date
2026-03-13
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

It was also concluded that there is a long-term relationship between the price level and the interest rate, with the effect running from the nominal interest rate to the price level.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The Gibson paradox refers to the positive relationship between the price level and the interest rate.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In this study, the correlation between the consumer price index and the deposit interest rate was tested using monthly data for the period 2000:01 and 2022:12 using nonlinear unit root test cointegration analysis.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:It was also concluded that there is a long-term relationship between the price level and the interest rate, with the effect running from the nominal interest rate to the price level.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2000 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Gibson Paradox · Nonlinear Unit Root Test · Hepsağ Cointegration Test

Abstract

The Gibson paradox refers to the positive relationship between the price level and the interest rate. It is one of the most debated empirical problems in macroeconomics. The aim of this research is to examine whether the Gibson paradox is applicable to the Turkish economy. In this study, the correlation between the consumer price index and the deposit interest rate was tested using monthly data for the period 2000:01 and 2022:12 using nonlinear unit root test cointegration analysis. Our findings show that the Gibson paradox holds true during the relevant period. It was also concluded that there is a long-term relationship between the price level and the interest rate, with the effect running from the nominal interest rate to the price level. This study supports the hypothesis that the Gibson paradox exists in Türkiye.

Özet

Gibson paradoksu, fiyat seviyesi ile faiz oranı arasındaki pozitif ilişkiye atıfta bulunur. Bu konu, makroekonomideki en çok tartışılan ampirik sorunlardan biridir. Bu araştırmanın amacı, Gibson paradoksunun Türkiye ekonomisi için geçerli olup olmadığını incelemektir. Bu çalışmada, 2000:01 ile 2022:12 dönemi için aylık veriler kullanılarak, tüketici fiyat endeksi ile mevduat faiz oranı arasındaki korelasyon, doğrusal olmayan birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testi kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar Gibson paradoksunun ilgili dönemde geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, fiyat seviyesi ile faiz oranı arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki olduğu ve etkinin nominal faiz oranından fiyat seviyesine doğru olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu çalışma, Gibson paradoksunun Türkiye'de geçerli olduğu hipotezini desteklemektedir.

🔖

Cite This Article

Kubar, Y., Ketenci, S. T., Çiçek, Y. (2026). Is Gibson Paradox Valid for Türkiye? Nonlinear Time Series Application. Fiscaoeconomia, Volume: 10 Issue: 1. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1628632

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (24)

  1. Atkins, F. J., & Serletis, A. (2003). Bounds tests of the Gibson paradox and the Fisher Effect: Evidence from low-frequency international data. Manchester School, 71(6), 673-679.
  2. Barsky, R.B., & Summers, L. H. (1988). Gibson Paradox and the gold standard. Journal of Political Economy, 96(3), 528-549.
  3. Chadha, J., S., & Perlman, M. (2014). Was the Gibson Paradox for real? A Wicksellian study of the relationship between interest rates and prices. European Association for Banking and Financial History, 21(2), 139-163.
  4. Cheng, H., Kesselring, R. G., & Brown, C. R. (2013). The Gibson Paradox: Evidence from China. China Economic Review, 27, 82-93.
  5. Coulombe, S. (1998). A non-paradoxical interpretation of the Gibson Paradox. Bank of Canada Working Paper, No. 98-22, 1-47.
  6. Dehghani, Z., Nooralah, S. A., & Mehdi, N. (2015). Gibson paradox analysis in Iran economic. International Journal of Modern Mathematical Sciences, 13(4), 442–448.
  7. Dowd, K., & Harrison, B. (2000). The Gibson Paradox and the gold standard: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1821-1913. Applied Economics Letters, 7, 711-713.
  8. Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J. (1982) Monetary trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their relation to income, prices, and interest rates, 1867-1975. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  9. Hannsgen, G. (2004). Gibson’s Paradox, monetary policy, and the emergence of cycles. The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Working Paper, No. 448, 1-21.
  10. Harvey D. I., & Mills, T. C. (2002). Unit roots and double smooth transitions. Journal of Applied Statistics, 29(5), 675-683.
  11. Hepsağ, A. (2022). Ekonometrik zaman serileri analizlerinde güncel yöntemler. İstanbul: Der yayınları.
  12. Klein, L.R. (1995). An economic interpretation of the Gibson relationship. Atlantic Economic Journal, 23, 159-176.
  13. Kocyigit, A., Kilic, M. E., & Bayat, T. (2015). A causality test on the Gibson Paradox in Türkiye. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 5(10), 1134-1147.
  14. Lee, C.-W.J., & Petruzzi, C.R. (1986). The Gibson Paradox and monetary standard. Review of Economics and Statistics, 68, 189-196.
  15. Mills, T. C. (1990). A note on the Gibson Paradox during the gold standard. Explorations in Economic History, 27, 277-286.
  16. Muscattelli, V. A., & Spinelli, F. (1996). Gibson’s Paradox and policy regimes: A comparison of the experience in the US, UK and Italy. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 43(4), 468-492.
  17. Ogbonna, B. B. C. (2014). Testing for Gibson’s paradox: evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(4), 157–163.
  18. Serletis, A., & Zestos, G. (1999). On the Gibson Paradox. Review of International Economics, 7, 117-125.
  19. Şimşek, M., & Kadılar, C. (2008). Gibson çelişkisinin Türkiye verileri ile analizi. Kırgız-Manas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 20, 116-127.
  20. Tanriöver, B., & Yamak, N. (2015). Nominal faiz oranı-genel fiyat düzeyi ilişkisinin Gibson Paradoksu çerçevesinde analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 168, 186-200.
  21. Tooke, T. (1844). An inquiry into the currency principle. Longman, Brown, Green, and Longmans, London.
  22. Wicksell, K. (1936). Interest and prices (Translated from the German: Richard F. Khan), R&R Clark Limited Edinburg, Great Britain.
  23. Woodward, G. T. (1992). Evidence of the Fisher effect from UK indexed bonds. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(2), 315-320.
  24. Yapraklı, S., & Yurttançıkmaz, Z. Ç. (2010). Türkiye’de Gibson çelişkisinin geçerliliği: Ekonometrik bir analiz (1970-2009). Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(3), 23-39.