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Factor Productivity as a Strategy for Turkey’s Exit from the Middle Income Trap within the Framework of the Fourier Approach

Türkiye'nin Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkış Stratejisi Olarak Faktör Verimliliği: Fourier ve Zamanla Değişen Yaklaşımlardan Kanıtlar

Hüseyin Tezer(BİLECİK ŞEYH EDEBALİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ)0000-0002-2376-5984
Uğur Çınar0000-0001-6978-6919
Pages
177–195
Publication Date
2026-01-30
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Empirical findings indicate that the variables are I(1) with smooth structural breaks.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Technological innovations and advancements constitute one of the primary sources of competitive advantage in the global economy.
📊
Key Findings & Data:An assessment of the macroeconomic policies implemented since the 1990s reveals that Turkey has failed to achieve the desired productivity targets due to the technological structure of its production system.
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Conclusion & Impact:Empirical findings indicate that the variables are I(1) with smooth structural breaks.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Makroekonomi · Orta Gelir Tuzağı · Ekonomik Büyüme

Abstract

Technological innovations and advancements constitute one of the primary sources of competitive advantage in the global economy. Therefore, increasing labor–capital productivity requires sustained progress in technological innovation, robust research and development activities, and the presence of a highly qualified labor force. In this context, the study aims to examine the productivity dynamics of the Turkish economy, which has long been unable to escape the middle-income trap. An assessment of the macroeconomic policies implemented since the 1990s reveals that Turkey has failed to achieve the desired productivity targets due to the technological structure of its production system. The continuation of a production regime characterized by low wages, low-productivity sectors, and a high dependence on imports has generated persistent current account deficits and recurrent economic vulnerabilities. Accordingly, the study employs recently developed time-series approaches, namely the Fractional Frequency Fourier ADF unit root test, the Fractional Frequency Fourier ADL cointegration analysis, and the Time-Varying Bootstrap causality analysis. Empirical findings indicate that the variables are I(1) with smooth structural breaks. Long-run estimates show that labor productivity, medium-high-technology exports, and government R&D expenditures stimulate economic growth, whereas exchange-rate volatility exerts a negative effect. Moreover, bidirectional causality is observed between economic growth and the explanatory variables, offering important policy implications for improving Turkey’s economic performance.

Özet

Teknolojik yenilikler ve gelişmeler, ülkelerin dünya ekonomisindeki rekabet üstünlüğünün en önemli nedenlerinin başında yer almaktadır. Bu yüzden emek-sermaye verimlilik seviyesinin yükseltilebilmesi için öncelikli olarak teknolojik yeniliklerdeki gelişimlere ve devamlılığına, araştırma ve geliştirme faaliyetlerine, nitelikli bir emek sermayesinin varlığına ihtiyaç vardır. Bu yüzden çalışmanın araştırma konusu uzun bir süreden beri orta gelir tuzağından çıkamayan Türkiye ekonomisinin faktör verimlilikleri açısından sorgulanması amaçlanmıştır. 1990’lardan beri Türkiye ekonomisinde uygulana gelen makroekonomik politikalar değerlendirildiğinde, üretim yapısındaki teknoloji seviyesi nedeniyle emek ve sermaye verimliliğinde istenen hedeflere ulaşılamamıştır. Ekonominin üretim gücündeki düşük ücretlere dayalı, verimliliği düşük sektörlerle ve ithalata dayalı bir üretim sisteminde sürdürülmesi, ekonomide sürekli tekrarlanan cari açık problemlerini ortaya çıkarmakta ve sürekli tekrarlanan ekonomik kırılganlıklarla karşılaşılmasına neden olmaktadır. Bu yüzden çalışmada zaman serisi yaklaşımlarından son dönemde literatüre kazandırılan Fractional Frequency Fourier ADF birim kök testi, Fractional Frequency Fourier ADL eş bütünleşme analizi ve Time-Varying Bootstrap nedensellik analizi kullanılmaktadır. Analizlerden elde edilen ampirik bulgular değişkenlerin yumuşak yapısal kırılmalar ile birlikte I(1) ve eşbütünleşik olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmanın uzun dönem tahminlerine göre işgücü verimliliği, orta-yüksek teknoloji ihracatı ve hükümetin R&D (Araştırma ve Geliştirme) harcamaları ekonomik büyümeyi teşvik ederken döviz kuru oynaklığı ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif bir etki yaratmaktadır. Ayrıca çalışmanın bağımsız değişkenleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinden söz edilmektedir. Bulgularımız Türkiye ekonomisinin performansını iyileştirmede önemli politika katkıları sunmaktadır.

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Cite This Article

Tezer, H., Çınar, U. (2026). Factor Productivity as a Strategy for Turkey’s Exit from the Middle Income Trap within the Framework of the Fourier Approach. Alanya Akademik Bakış, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 177–195. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1674722

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