EFFECTS OF 2008 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS ON DIRECT INVESTMENTS AND CAUSALITY BETWEEN DIRECT INVESTMENTS FLOW AND INTERNAL FACTORS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Özet

This article attempts to determine two aims. First, examine if structural shift exist in the direct investments of Turkey because of the 2008 global economic crisis. Second; determine the causality between direct investments and internal macro economic factors of Turkey. More clearly, taking into consideration that Turkey has become more integrated with the global financial system last years, the direct investments situation is to be analyzed both from the perspective of 2008 global economic crises and in relation with the internal fundamental economic variables such as industrial production, exchange rates, consumer confidence index and inflation rate. In the study, using the methodology of Zivot Andrews structural break and Granger Causality tests, results show that foreign direct investments of Turkey have been affected by the 2008 global economic crisis, whereas outflow of direct investments not. In addition it has been found Granger causality between direct investments and exchange rates, industrial production and consumer confidence index.