SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences / 2020 / Cilt: 29 - Sayı: 2

Sustainability of External Debt: The Case of ECOWAS Countries

Dış Borçların Sürdürülebilirliği: ECOWAS Ülkeleri Örneği

Selçuk AKÇAY
Nebi ÇELİK
Pages
207–230
Publication Date
2020-10-30
DOI
—
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Based on our results some policy recommendations are proposed.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:External debt sustainability is a pressing issue in developing countries, particularly for Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC).
📊
Key Findings & Data:To test external debt sustainability, unit root test and Johansen & Juselius (1990) co-integration and panel unit root and panel cointegration tests are employed.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Based on our results some policy recommendations are proposed.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Dış borç sürdürülebilirliği · Zaman serisi · Panel veri

Abstract

External debt sustainability is a pressing issue in developing countries, particularly for Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). The main purpose of this study is to investigate the sustainability of external debt in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To test external debt sustainability, unit root test and Johansen & Juselius (1990) co-integration and panel unit root and panel cointegration tests are employed. The unit root tests show that the total external debt to export ratio is not stationary in all countries verifying the unsustainability of external debts. Further, co-integration tests results based on time series and panel data indicate that total external debt stock and export are not co-integrated suggesting that external debt is not sustainable in all countries. Based on our results some policy recommendations are proposed.

Özet

Dış borçların sürdürülebilirliği, gelişmekte olan ülkeler ve özellikle de Ağır Borçlu Yoksul Ülkeler (HIPC) için önemli bir sorundur. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Batı Afrika Devletleri Ekonomik Topluluğu (ECOWAS) için dış borçların sürdürülebilirliğini araştırmaktır. Sürdürülebilirliği test etmek için, kırılmasız ve kırılmalı birim kök testleri ile Johansen ve Juselius (1990) eşbütünleşme testi ve panel veri yöntemi (panel birim kök ve panel eşbütünleşme testleri) kullanılmıştır. Birim kök testlerinde toplam dış borcun ihracata oranının durağan olmaması, ECOWAS ülkelerinde dış borçların sürdürülemez olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca, eşbütünleşme testleri toplam dış borç stoku ile ihracatın eşbütünleşik olmadığını, dolayısıyla tüm ülkelerde dış borçların sürdürülemez olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Elde edilen bulgulara dayalı bazı politika önerilerinde bulunulmuştur.

🔖

Cite This Article

AKÇAY, S., ÇELİK, N. (2020). Sustainability of External Debt: The Case of ECOWAS Countries. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, Cilt: 29 - Sayı: 2, 207–230. https://ajindex.com/articles/120984

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (11)

  1. Adamu, I. M., & Rasiah, R. (2016). External Debt and Growth Dynamics in Nigeria. African Development Review, 28(3), 291-303. African Development Bank, (2019). West Africa Economic Outlook 2019: Macroeconomic Performance and Prospect, Regional Integration and Structural Transformation in West Africa, African Development Bank Group. Anyanwu, J. C. (1993). Monetary Economics: Theory, Policy and Institutions (pp. 247-274).
  2. Hybrid Professional Publishers Ltd, Onitsha. Arize, A. C. (2002). Imports and Exports in 50 Countries: Test of Cointegration and Structural Breaks. International Review of Economics & Finance, 11(1), 101-115.
  3. Azgün, S. (2005). Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirliği: Zamanlararası Bütçe Kısıtı Testleri. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5(2), 57–68.
  4. Badia, M. M., Medas, P., Gupta, P., & Xiang, Y. (2020).
  5. Debt Is Not Free. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/20/1, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Baduel, B., & Price, R. (2012). Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Some Aggregate Evidence. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/12/167, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Breitung, J., & Pesaran, M. H. (2008). Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels. In: Matyas L, Sevestre P (Eds). The Econometrics of Panel Data (Third Edition), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 236-265.
  6. Chowdhury, A. (2001). External Debt and Growth in Developing Countries: A Sensitivity and Causal Analysis. World Institute for Economic Research, Discussions Paper, (95), 1–26.
  7. Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R., & Nguyen, T. (2003).
  8. External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries, IMF Working Paper, No. WP/03/249, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  9. Edo, S. E. (2002). The External Debt Problem in Africa: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and Morocco. African Development Review, 14(2), 221-236.
  10. Feve, P., & Henin, P. Y. (1998). Une Evaluation Econometrique de La Soutenabilite de La Dette Exterieure des Pays en Developpement. Revue Economique, pp. 75-86.
  11. Fofack, H. (2009). Causality between External Debt and Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa. Policy Research Working Paper, No. WPS 5042, World Bank. Folawewo, A.O. & Adeboje, O.M. (2017), Macroeconomic Determinants of Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Economic Community of West African States. African Development Revie