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Journals / BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi / 2025 / Cilt: 19 Sayı: 2

SKDM Düzenlemesinin Dış Ticaret Açığı Üzerindeki Dinamik Etkileşimi: İhracat Kredileri Bağlamında Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi

Yaşam Demir(PAMUKKALE ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0001-9482-1456
Pages
119–148
Publication Date
2025-12-30
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Ayrıca çalışma, SKDM’nin yalnızca çevresel bir düzenleme değil; AB’nin karbon maliyetlerini ticaret sistemine entegre ederek ekonomik aktörleri yönlendirdiği bir jeo-ekonomik politika aracı haline geldiğine işaret etmektedir.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret dengesi üzerinde Avrupa Birliği’nin Sınırda Karbon Düzenleme Mekanizması (SKDM) kapsamında AB’ye yapılan ihracatın, ihracat kredileri ve döviz kuru ile etkileşimi yoluyla oluşan baskıyı analiz etmektir.
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Key Findings & Data:Bu kapsamda, 2013/1–2025/6 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak Fourier–ADF birim kök testi ve Fourier–Toda–Yamamoto nedensellik analizi uygulanmıştır.
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Conclusion & Impact:Ayrıca çalışma, SKDM’nin yalnızca çevresel bir düzenleme değil; AB’nin karbon maliyetlerini ticaret sistemine entegre ederek ekonomik aktörleri yönlendirdiği bir jeo-ekonomik politika aracı haline geldiğine işaret etmektedir.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2013 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Sınırda Karbon Düzenleme Mekanizması (SKDM) · İhracat Kredileri · Dış Ticaret Açığı

Özet

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret dengesi üzerinde Avrupa Birliği’nin Sınırda Karbon Düzenleme Mekanizması (SKDM) kapsamında AB’ye yapılan ihracatın, ihracat kredileri ve döviz kuru ile etkileşimi yoluyla oluşan baskıyı analiz etmektir. Bu kapsamda, 2013/1–2025/6 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak Fourier–ADF birim kök testi ve Fourier–Toda–Yamamoto nedensellik analizi uygulanmıştır. Analizde dış ticaret açığı, SKDM kapsamındaki AB ihracatı, ihracat kredilerinin toplam krediler içindeki payı ve reel efektif döviz kuru değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, dış ticaret açığı ile diğer değişkenler arasında doğrudan nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmadığını; buna karşılık ihracat kredileri ile döviz kuru arasında çift yönlü, SKDM kapsamındaki ihracat ile döviz kuru arasında ise tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, ihracatın kur ve finansman koşullarıyla etkileşim içinde olduğunu; dış ticaret üzerindeki baskının ise gecikmeli ve dolaylı mekanizmalarla işlediğini göstermektedir. Çalışmanın asıl katkısı, SKDM’nin Türkiye’nin dış ticaret performansı üzerindeki etkisinin kısa vadede gözlemlenememesinin bir “etkisizlik” değil; geçiş süreci, firmaların sektörel ve bölgesel yönelim değişimleri ve finansal uyum araçlarının devrede olmasıyla ilişkili olduğunu ampirik olarak ortaya koymaktır. Ayrıca çalışma, SKDM’nin yalnızca çevresel bir düzenleme değil; AB’nin karbon maliyetlerini ticaret sistemine entegre ederek ekonomik aktörleri yönlendirdiği bir jeo-ekonomik politika aracı haline geldiğine işaret etmektedir.

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Cite This Article

Demir, Y. (2025). SKDM Düzenlemesinin Dış Ticaret Açığı Üzerindeki Dinamik Etkileşimi: İhracat Kredileri Bağlamında Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 2, 119–148. https://doi.org/10.46520/bddkdergisi.1851387

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