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Journals / Sosyoekonomi / 2026 / Cilt: 34 Sayı: 68

Spatial Dynamics of the Financial Kuznets Curve in the European Union

Avrupa Birliği’nde Finansal Kuznets Eğrisinin Mekânsal Dinamikleri

Yavuz Özek(FIRAT UNIVERSITY)0000-0003-4517-4875
İzzet Taşar(FIRAT UNIVERSITY)0000-0001-9187-6910
Tayfur Bayat(inönü üniversitesi)0000-0002-4427-0999
Pages
205–221
Publication Date
2026-04-28
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the results of Global Moran’s I and LISA, there is strong, positive, and significant spatial dependence both in the variables and in the residuals of the ordinary least squares (OLS) model.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:In this study, the validity of the Financial Kuznets Curve (FKC) in the EU-27 economies for the period 2009-2022 is examined using geographically weighted regression (GWR).
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Key Findings & Data:According to the results of Global Moran’s I and LISA, there is strong, positive, and significant spatial dependence both in the variables and in the residuals of the ordinary least squares (OLS) model.
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Conclusion & Impact:Therefore, instead of uniform solutions in the design of economic policy, policy packages should be developed that are tailored to the institutional structure of financial markets, price dynamics, and foreign trade structures of the countries.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2009-2022 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Finansal Kuznets Eğrisi · Coğrafi Ağırlıklı Regresyon · Avrupa Birliği

Abstract

In this study, the validity of the Financial Kuznets Curve (FKC) in the EU-27 economies for the period 2009-2022 is examined using geographically weighted regression (GWR). According to the results of Global Moran’s I and LISA, there is strong, positive, and significant spatial dependence both in the variables and in the residuals of the ordinary least squares (OLS) model. When comparing the performance of various coefficient-of-determination metrics based on the lambda coefficient, the validity of the FKC is primarily determined by the country's location. From the perspective of the global OLS model, the FKC hypothesis is not valid. According to the GWR results, the FKC is valid in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, France, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Croatia. While inflation reduces income inequality in Portugal and Belgium, it increases income inequality in France, Germany, Malta, Italy, Czechia, Slovakia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Trade openness reduces income inequality in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Latvia, and Croatia; however, it has an increasing effect in Finland and Luxembourg. As a result, because the FKC hypothesis exhibits strong spatial dependence across EU-27 countries, it is valid only in certain countries. Therefore, instead of uniform solutions in the design of economic policy, policy packages should be developed that are tailored to the institutional structure of financial markets, price dynamics, and foreign trade structures of the countries.

Özet

Bu çalışmada, 2009-2022 döneminde AB-27 ekonomilerinde Finansal Kuznets Eğrisinin (FKC) geçerliliği coğrafi ağırlıklı (GWR) regresyon ile incelenmektedir. Global Moran’s I ve LISA sonuçlarına göre hem değişkenlerinde hem de en küçük kareler (OLS) modeli artıklarında güçlü, pozitif ve anlamlı mekânsal bağımlılık bulunmaktadır. Lambda katsayısına göre değişen belirlilik katsayılarının performanslarının karşılaştırılmasında FKC’nin geçerliliği esas olarak ülkenin bulunduğu konumla ilişkilidir. Global OLS modeli açısından FKC hipotezi geçerli değildir. GWR sonuçlarına göre, İrlanda, Portekiz, İspanya, Fransa, Romanya, Macaristan, Bulgaristan ve Hırvatistan ekonomilerinde FKC geçerlidir. Enflasyon, Portekiz ve Belçika’da gelir eşitsizliğini azaltırken, Fransa, Almanya, Malta, İtalya, Çekya, Slovakya, Yunanistan, Bulgaristan, Romanya, Hırvatistan, Litvanya, Letonya ve Estonya’da gelir eşitsizliğini artırmaktadır. Ticari açıklık ise Polonya, Macaristan, Slovakya, Letonya ve Hırvatistan’da gelir eşitsizliğini azaltırken, Finlandiya ve Lüksemburg’da ise artırıcı bir etki gösterdiği belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, AB-27 ülkelerinde FKC hipotezi güçlü mekânsal bağımlılık içerdiği için yalnızca belirli ülkelerde geçerlidir. Bu nedenle, iktisat politikası tasarımında tek tip çözümler yerine, ülkelerin mali piyasalarının kurumsal yapısına, fiyat dinamiklerine ve dış ticaret yapılarına göre spesifikleştirilmiş politika paketleri geliştirilmelidir.

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Cite This Article

Özek, Y., Taşar, İ., Bayat, T. (2026). Spatial Dynamics of the Financial Kuznets Curve in the European Union. Sosyoekonomi, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 68, 205–221. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2026.02.08

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