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Journals / Uludağ Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Dergisi / 2025 / Cilt: 52

Predictors of Mortality in Adult Seawater Drowning Patients: A Retrospective Analysis of Arterial Blood Gas, Inflammatory Indices, and Radiological Findings

Yetişkin Tuzlu Su Boğulması Hastalarında Mortalite Belirleyicileri: Arteriyel Kan Gazı, Enflamatuar İndeksler ve Radyolojik Bulguların Retrospektif Analizi

Ahmet Yurttaş(Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Pulmonology, Alanya, Antalya, Türkiye)0000-0002-2745-7866
Deniz Çelik(Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Pulmonology, Alanya, Antalya, Türkiye)0000-0003-4634-205X
Hüseyin Lakadamyalı(Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Pulmonology, Alanya, Antalya, Türkiye)0000-0002-3036-6770
Sertan Bulut(Atatürk Sanatorium Training and Research Hospital, Department of Pulmonology, Ankara, Türkiye.)0000-0003-1267-3440
Ahmet Ursavaş(Bursa Uludağ University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Pulmonology, Bursa, Türkiye.)0000-0003-4482-5904
Pages
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Publication Date
2026-07-08
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The overall mortality rate was 45% (23/51).

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:This study sought to identify independent predictors of mortality in patients with seawater drowning and to evaluate the prognostic performance of arterial blood gas parameters and inflammatory indices using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.
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Key Findings & Data:Medical records of a total of 51 drowning cases (34 males, 17 females; mean age 48.8 years) were retrospectively reviewed.
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Conclusion & Impact:The overall mortality rate was 45% (23/51).
🔬Design:Review & Systematic Survey
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Tuzlu su boğulma · mortalite · etanol

Abstract

This study sought to identify independent predictors of mortality in patients with seawater drowning and to evaluate the prognostic performance of arterial blood gas parameters and inflammatory indices using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Medical records of a total of 51 drowning cases (34 males, 17 females; mean age 48.8 years) were retrospectively reviewed. Age, sex, ethanol level, complete blood count, biochemical parameters, arterial blood gas parameters, lung imaging findings, and clinical outcomes were analyzed. The cut-off values of parameters with predictive values for mortality were determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The overall mortality rate was 45% (23/51). The main factors significantly associated with mortality were advanced age, cardiac arrest, need for intensive care, elevated troponin levels (>11 ng/L), and severe metabolic acidosis. Bicarbonate 5.9 mmol/L (AUC: 0.90), and arterial pH <7.22 (AUC: 0.97) demonstrated the highest predictive value for mortality. Mortality following drowning can be predicted with high accuracy at an early stage using simple and widely available laboratory tests and clinical assessments. Lymphocyte count, troponin levels, and arterial blood gas analyses play a critical role in triage and in determining aggressive treatment strategies.

Özet

Bu çalışma, tuzlu su boğulması olan hastalarda mortalitenin bağımsız belirleyicilerini belirlemeyi ve arteriyel kan gazı parametreleri ile inflamatuar indekslerin prognostik performansını alıcı işletim karakteristik (ROC) eğrisi analizi kullanarak değerlendirmeyi amaçlamıştır.Toplam 51 boğulma vakasının (34 erkek, 17 kadın; ortalama yaş 48,8 yıl) tıbbi kayıtları retrospektif olarak incelendi. Yaş, cinsiyet, etanol seviyesi, tam kan sayımı, biyokimyasal parametreler, arteriyel kan gazı parametreleri, akciğer görüntüleme bulguları ve klinik sonuçlar analiz edildi. Ölüm için prediktif değerlere sahip parametrelerin kesim değerleri, alıcı işletim karakteristik (ROC) eğrisi analizi kullanılarak belirlendi. Genel ölüm oranı %45'ti (23/51). Ölüme önemli ölçüde bağlı olan ana faktörler ileri yaş, kalp durması, yoğun bakım ihtiyacı, yüksek troponin seviyeleri (>11 ng/L) ve şiddetli metabolik asidozdu. Bikarbonat 5.9 mmol/L (AUC: 0,90) ve arteriyel pH <7,22 (AUC: 0,97) ölüm oranı için en yüksek öngörü değerini gösterdi.Boğulma sonrası ölüm, basit ve yaygın olarak bulunan laboratuvar testleri ve klinik değerlendirmeler kullanılarak erken aşamada yüksek doğrulukla tahmin edilebilir. Lenfosit sayısı, troponin seviyeleri ve arteriyel kan gazı analizleri, acil triajda ve agresif tedavi stratejilerinin belirlenmesinde kritik bir rol oynar.

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Cite This Article

Yurttaş, A., Çelik, D., Lakadamyalı, H., Bulut, S., Ursavaş, A., *, D. Ç. (2026). Predictors of Mortality in Adult Seawater Drowning Patients: A Retrospective Analysis of Arterial Blood Gas, Inflammatory Indices, and Radiological Findings. Uludağ Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 52. https://doi.org/10.32708/uutfd.1917999

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