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Journals / Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2026 / Volume: 27 Issue: 1

BUCK FOR THE BANG: THE GUNS OR GROWTH CASE OF TÜRKİYE

Mikail Pehlivan(TRAKYA UNIVERSITY)0000-0002-7273-333X
Umut Akduğan(TRAKYA UNIVERSITY)0000-0001-8659-541X
Pages
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Publication Date
2026-03-26
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The results show clear evidence of cointegration between military expenditure, economic growth, and private expenditure.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study investigates the long-run and short-run effects of military expenditure on economic growth and private expenditure in Türkiye over 1960–2023 using a nonlinear empirical strategy that allows for smooth structural breaks.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Long-run elasticities indicate that a 1% rise in military spending increases economic growth by 1.129% and private expenditure by 1.214%.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:The results show clear evidence of cointegration between military expenditure, economic growth, and private expenditure.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2023 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Military Expenditure · Fourier-ADL Cointegration · Private Expenditure

Abstract

This study investigates the long-run and short-run effects of military expenditure on economic growth and private expenditure in Türkiye over 1960–2023 using a nonlinear empirical strategy that allows for smooth structural breaks. Conventional time-series approaches often overlook parameter instability in economies subject to recurrent political and geopolitical shocks; to address this, the analysis employs the Fourier-ADF and flexible Fourier-ADF unit root tests, Fourier-ADL cointegration method, and Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality procedure. The results show clear evidence of cointegration between military expenditure, economic growth, and private expenditure. Long-run elasticities indicate that a 1% rise in military spending increases economic growth by 1.129% and private expenditure by 1.214%. However no short-run causality is detected. Overall, the findings reject the burden, neutrality, and crowding-out hypotheses, demonstrating instead that military expenditure has contributed positively to Türkiye’s long-term economic performance.

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Cite This Article

Pehlivan, M., Akduğan, U. (2026). BUCK FOR THE BANG: THE GUNS OR GROWTH CASE OF TÜRKİYE. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Volume: 27 Issue: 1. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1756394

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