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Journals / Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1

Comparative Analysis of SPI and SPEI Based Drought Trends In Sivas Province Using The Modified Mann-Kendall Approach

Modifiye Mann-Kendall Yaklaşımıyla SPI ve SPEI Tabanlı Sivas İlindeki Kuraklık Eğilimlerinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Sefa Furkan Selçuk(ARTVİN ÇORUH ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-3700-4377
Pages
134–147
Publication Date
2026-04-21
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

This trend emphasizes the growing importance of sustainable water management and agricultural planning in Sivas Province.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Drought analysis enables the development of preventive and remedial strategies by determining the severity, duration, and frequency of drought periods, which are critical for the sustainable management of water resources and agricultural planning.
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Key Findings & Data:Data obtained from six meteorological stations in Sivas Province for the period between 1980 and 2020 were evaluated on 3- and 12-month time scales.
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Conclusion & Impact:This trend emphasizes the growing importance of sustainable water management and agricultural planning in Sivas Province.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2020 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Kuraklık · Modifiye Mann-Kendall · Sivas

Abstract

Drought analysis enables the development of preventive and remedial strategies by determining the severity, duration, and frequency of drought periods, which are critical for the sustainable management of water resources and agricultural planning. This study aims to analyze meteorological drought events in Sivas Province using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Data obtained from six meteorological stations in Sivas Province for the period between 1980 and 2020 were evaluated on 3- and 12-month time scales. The Modified Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimator tests were employed to analyze drought trends. SPI and SPEI indices revealed the temporal variations of drought conditions. In the calculations performed with both indices, drought periods that began particularly in the 2010s and reached extreme values in 2014 and 2017 were noteworthy. For these droughts, SPI indicated more intense droughts, whereas SPEI reflected longer-lasting drought periods. This finding underscores the significant role of rainfall deficiencies as the primary driver of drought in the region. The Modified Mann-Kendall trend analysis and Sen’s Slope Estimator tests demonstrated a statistically significant increasing trend in drought events across all stations. This trend emphasizes the growing importance of sustainable water management and agricultural planning in Sivas Province.

Özet

Kuraklık analizi, su kaynaklarının sürdürülebilir yönetimi ve tarımsal planlama için kuraklık dönemlerinin şiddetini, süresini ve sıklığını belirleyerek önleyici ve iyileştirici stratejiler geliştirilmesine olanak sağlar. Bu çalışma, Sivas ilindeki meteorolojik kuraklık olaylarını Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi (SPI) ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) kullanarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada 1980-2020 yılları arasında Sivas ilinde bulunan altı meteorolojik istasyondan elde edilen veriler, 3 ve 12 aylık zaman ölçeklerinde değerlendirilmiştir. Kuraklık eğilimlerinin analizi için Modifiye Mann-Kendall ve Sen’in Eğilim testi kullanılmıştır. SPI ve SPEI indeksleri, kuraklık koşullarının zamansal değişimlerini ortaya koymuştur. İki indeksle yapılan hesaplamalarda, özellikle 2010’lu yıllarda başlayan ve 2014 ile 2017 yıllarında uç değerlere ulaşan kuraklık dönemleri dikkat çekmiştir. Bu kuraklıklar için SPI daha şiddetli, SPEI ise daha uzun süren kuraklık dönemlerini göstermiştir. Bu durum bölgede ciddi yağış eksiklikleri yaşandığını ve bu eksikliğin kuraklığın başlıca itici gücü olduğunu göstermiştir. Modifiye Mann-Kendall trend analizi ve Sen’in Eğilim testleri, tüm istasyonlarda kuraklık olaylarının istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir artış trendi içinde olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu eğilim, Sivas ilindeki su kaynaklarının sürdürülebilir yönetimi ve tarımsal planlamanın giderek daha önemli hale geldiğini vurgulamaktadır.

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Cite This Article

Selçuk, S. F. (2026). Comparative Analysis of SPI and SPEI Based Drought Trends In Sivas Province Using The Modified Mann-Kendall Approach. Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1, 134–147. https://doi.org/10.7212/karaelmasfen.1804817

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