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Journals / Journal of Transportation and Logistics / 2026 / Volume: 11 Issue: 1

The Relationship Between Shipping Demand and Macroeconomic Determinants in Türkiye: An ARDL Approach

Umut Genç(BEYKOZ UNIVERSITY)0000-0002-6700-8125
Arda Toygar(ORDU UNIVERSITY)0000-0001-5548-7248
Cemile Solak Fışkın(ORDU UNIVERSITY)0000-0003-3358-0673
Ali Tehci(ORDU UNIVERSITY)0000-0001-9949-2794
Pages
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Publication Date
2026-05-15
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

This study provides empirical evidence related to maritime policy development through macroeconomic shifts to enhance the understanding of how fluctuations in the macroeconomy affect.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study aims to identify the short- and long-run macroeconomic determinants of shipping demand in Türkiye and examine whether structural breaks alter these relationships.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Monthly data spanning January 2012 to June 2025 are analyzed using an autoregressive distributed lag model and an error correction model.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:This study provides empirical evidence related to maritime policy development through macroeconomic shifts to enhance the understanding of how fluctuations in the macroeconomy affect.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2012 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Shipping demand · maritime resilience · economic policy uncertainty

Abstract

This study aims to identify the short- and long-run macroeconomic determinants of shipping demand in Türkiye and examine whether structural breaks alter these relationships. Monthly data spanning January 2012 to June 2025 are analyzed using an autoregressive distributed lag model and an error correction model. In addition, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Zivot-Andrews, and Bai-Perron tests were incorporated to identify any structural breaks and assess stationarity. Based on the analysis of empirical results, the Industrial Production Index was determined to be the most significant long-run variable in predicting long-term shipping demand. Conversely, there is a significant negative impact of crude oil prices on shipping activity. The Baltic Dry Index and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty were both determined to be insignificant in predicting long-term shipping demand. However, they each had an immediate negative impact on shipping demand in the short run, exhibiting lagged response effects. The model showed that stable long-run equilibrium exists, which indicates that the model accommodates relatively rapid adjustments. There was evidence of a regime shift occurring in March 2019, which indicates a structural break in the market. This study provides empirical evidence related to maritime policy development through macroeconomic shifts to enhance the understanding of how fluctuations in the macroeconomy affect.

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Cite This Article

Genç, U., Toygar, A., Fışkın, C. S., Tehci, A. (2026). The Relationship Between Shipping Demand and Macroeconomic Determinants in Türkiye: An ARDL Approach. Journal of Transportation and Logistics, Volume: 11 Issue: 1. https://doi.org/10.26650/JTL.2026.1862286

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