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Journals / Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi / 2026 / Sayı: 74

TAX WEDGE AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TURKIYE

VERGİ TAKOZU VE MAKROEKONOMİK DİNAMİKLER: TÜRKİYE'DEN AMPİRİK KANITLAR

Çiğdem Çadırcı(HARRAN ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ, MALİYE BÖLÜMÜ)0000-0003-1602-3103
Levent Kaya(HARRAN ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0001-7278-8114
Pages
133–144
Publication Date
2026-05-04
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings reveal the existence of a long-run relationship between the tax wedge, economic growth, trade openness, and public external debt.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The effectiveness of tax systems is closely linked not only to their impact on income distribution but also to their potential effects on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, trade openness, and public fiscal balances.
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Key Findings & Data:In this study, we used yearly data for Türkiye from 2000 to 2023 and looked at the cointegration and causality relationships between the series using econometric methods.
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Conclusion & Impact:The findings reveal the existence of a long-run relationship between the tax wedge, economic growth, trade openness, and public external debt.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2000 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Vergi Takozu · Ekonomik Büyüme · Kamu Dış Borcu

Abstract

The effectiveness of tax systems is closely linked not only to their impact on income distribution but also to their potential effects on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, trade openness, and public fiscal balances. In this study, we used yearly data for Türkiye from 2000 to 2023 and looked at the cointegration and causality relationships between the series using econometric methods. The findings reveal the existence of a long-run relationship between the tax wedge, economic growth, trade openness, and public external debt. This situation indicates that the variables in question move around a common equilibrium relationship over time. According to the results of the causality analysis, there is only a one-way causality relationship from the tax wedge to economic growth. This situation shows that changes in tax policies have an impact on growth dynamics. In contrast, no causal relationship has been identified between the tax wedge and trade openness and public external debt. The findings of the study suggest that reducing the tax wedge may serve as an important instrument in establishing a sustainable fiscal policy framework to support economic growth in Türkiye.

Özet

Vergi sistemlerinin etkinliği, sadece gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkileriyle değil, aynı zamanda ekonomik büyüme, dışa açıklık ve kamu mali dengeleri gibi makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki potansiyel etkileriyle de yakından ilişkilidir. Çalışmada, 2000-2023 dönemi için Türkiye'ye ait yıllık veriler kullanılmış ve seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkisi ekonometrik olarak test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, vergi takozu ile ekonomik büyüme, ticari açıklık ve kamu dış borcu arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu durum, ilgili değişkenlerin zaman içinde ortak bir denge ilişkisi etrafında hareket ettiğini göstermektedir. Nedensellik analizi sonuçlarına göre yalnızca vergi takozundan ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik söz konusudur. Bu durum vergi politikalarındaki değişimlerin büyüme dinamikleri üzerinde etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, vergi takozu ile ticari açıklık ve kamu dış borcu arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları, Türkiye'de ekonomik büyümeyi destekleyecek sürdürülebilir bir mali politika yapısının oluşturulmasında vergi takozunun azaltılmasının önemli bir araç olabileceğine işaret etmektedir.

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Cite This Article

Çadırcı, Ç., Kaya, L. (2026). TAX WEDGE AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TURKIYE. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Sayı: 74, 133–144. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1755870

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