Potential distribution of the guava psyllid Triozoida limbata (Hemiptera, Psylloidea), today and in global climate change scenarios

Abstract

The jumping plant-louse Triozoida limbata is monophagous on guava (Psidium guajava), inducing leaf galls. Guava is plantedtoday in warmer regions around the world but T. limbata is restricted to Central and South America. Recently, the latter has become a keypest in commercial plantations in Brazil (Pernambuco and São Paulo). Modeling of potential distributions is a good tool for developingcontrol strategies of insect pests. Based on distributional data from the Americas, we created models for the psyllids for the present andfuture using different scenarios of climate change. The OpenModeller eco-niche modeling program was used with the EnvironmentalDistance and Envelope Score algorithms. The potential distribution of T. limbata covers Central America, tropical and subtropical SouthAmerica, sub-Saharan Africa except for the Kalahari and Cape regions, the southwest of the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia, andthe north of Australia. In India, the largest guava producer of the world, the conditions for T. limbata are most favorable in the west andsouth. The effects of global climate change will be most felt in Brazil, where the decrease of suitable areas for T. limbata will concentratethe pest in the east and northeast and thus put more pressure on guava, increasing the potential for psyllid-induced damage.