Predicting the potential distribution area of Solidago ×niederederi (Asteraceae)

Abstract

In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential distribution area of Solidago ×niederederi, a natural hybrid betweenNorth American S. canadensis and European S. virgaurea, in Central and East Europe using the MAXENT modeling approach. Thefinal MAXENT model was constructed based on 83 occurrence records from Austria, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia and six abioticenvironmental variables. The jackknife test revealed that annual temperature range, mean temperature of wettest quarter, and minimumtemperature of coldest month had the highest gain for the training and test data when used alone, whereas precipitation seasonality,precipitation of coldest quarter, and precipitation of warmest quarter reduced the gain the most when excluded from the model and thuscontributed the most information not presented with the other variables. A high probability of occurrence (>0.6) for S. ×niederederi wasfound in 12 countries, namely Austria, Belarus, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Russia (KaliningradOblast), Slovenia, Slovakia, and Ukraine. Our results showed in which areas the hybrid may be established under the European temperateclimatic conditions; however, we do not indicate which areas exactly may be under invasion by the hybrid because such a statementneeds population dynamic data for proper investigation. To prevent the negative impact of S. ×niederederi on native S. virgaurea (i.e.competition for pollinators and introgression) we suggest that it should be controlled first in areas of high probability of occurrence,especially in Lithuania, Kaliningrad Oblast, Slovakia, Poland, and Austria, where the areas of high probability of hybrid occurrenceaccount for more than 5% of the territory concerned.