Iran’s Second Demographic Transitin and BelowReplacement Fertiity: Implicatins for Populatin Policies

Abstract

Over the past two decades, the overall fertility rate in Iran, like most developed andsome developing countries, has fallen drastically to a below-replacement level (undertwo children per woman is required to maintain a population), dropping from 2.0children per women in 2000 (Erfani & McQuillan, 2008) to 1.8 in 2005 and then to1.65 in 2011 and 2017 (Erfani, 2013; United Nations Population Division, 2017). Theenduring low fertility rate can accelerate population aging and the declining laborforce, with the prospect of severe consequences for economic development. Therefore,a thorough understanding of the determinants of low fertility is essential for adequatepolicy responses to this situation.