Türkiye'de organizasyonel sürekliliği etkileyen faktörlerin incelenmesi

Özet

Türkiye’de organizasyonel süreklilik ve organizasyonel ölüm riski arasındaki ilişkinin incelendiği bu çalışmada, organizasyonların yaşam süreleri boyunca ne tür riskler taşıdıkları ve bu risklerin Türkiye’de organizasyonel sürekliliği nasıl etkilediğine açıklık getirilmeye çalışılmıştır. Küçüklük engelleri hipotezlerinin geçerliliği, İstanbul Sanayi Odası’ndan (İSO) alınan faaliyetini sonlandırmış firmalara ait verilerle incelenmiştir. İstanbul Ticaret Odası (İTO) ve İSO’dan alınan kurumsal firma verileri, Kaplan-Meier ve Cox Orantısal Riskler Regresyonu ile analiz edilerek, organizasyonel ölçek ve organizasyonel yer seçiminin, organizasyonel sürekliliğe etkisi belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Öncelikle Kaplan-Meier Yöntemi ile organizasyonel süreklilik ve risk fonksiyonları hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen organizasyonel süreklilik fonksiyonları arasında, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir farkın olup olmadığı Log Rank testi ile incelenmiştir. Hesaplanan organizasyonel süreklilik fonksiyonları arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir farkın bulunması, ilgili örnek hacmi için incelenen organizasyonel faktörün organizasyonel sürekliliği etkilemiş olduğunun bir göstergesidir. Bu aşamadan sonra, organizasyonel sürekliliğe etkisi incelenen organizasyonel faktörün alt kategorilerinin organizasyonel sürekliliğe göreceli etkilerinin incelenmesi için Cox Orantısal Riskler Regresyonu uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; İSO verilerinin analizinde organizasyonel sürekliliğin organizasyonel ölçeğe bağlı olarak değiştiği, İTO verilerinin analizinde ise organizasyonel sürekliliğin organizasyonel yer seçimine bağlı olarak değiştiği görülmüştür. İTO’da faaliyet göstermiş kurumsal firmalar için Eminönü ilçesinin organizasyonel süreklilik açısından en elverişli ilçe, Sultanbeyli ilçesinin ise organizasyonel ölüm riski en yüksek ilçe olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the potential risks that Turkish organizations would face during their entire life cycles and to analyze how those risks affect organizational survival and organizational mortality in Turkey. The organizational survival depends on many factors. For different environments, the factors affecting organizational survival might differ. Therefore, it is important to determine these factors for each specific environment. This study aims to highlight the organizational factors affecting organizational survival in Istanbul. Istanbul is the largest city in Turkey in terms of population. Data provided by the Turkish Statistical Institute indicates that in year 2004, throughout Turkey, 15 721 of 40 919 organizations are founded in Istanbul and 3 730 of 7 660 organizations have failed in Istanbul. With this aspect, Istanbul gives a projection of the whole country. The presence of liabilities of smallness for the organizations lived in Turkey is checked according to the data obtained from Istanbul Chamber of Industry. Historical data used in the analysis range from years 1952 to 2006. 11 209 organizations are examined where the mean survival time was 11 271 years. To study the presence of liabilities of smallness, the organizational data are grouped into 3 organizational sizes. The first organizational size is called ‘small scale organizations’ having 50 and less workers, second organizational size is called ‘middle scale organizations’ having between 51 and 150 workers and the last organizational size is called large scale organizations’ which have more than 151 workers. According to the analysis; the mean survival times are found to be positively related to the organizational scale. Next, the organizational survival and the hazard functions are calculated using Kaplan Meier method. The significance of the statistical difference between the survival functions for the organizational sizes defined is tested with Log Rank test. According to the chi-square value calculated, the difference between organizational survival funtions is significant. This fact allows us to claim that the organizational size is an organizational factor that affected organizational survival of the firms registered at Istanbul Chamber of Industy. We also looked at the pairwise comparisons of the organizational survival funtions for each organizational size. The effect of organizational location on organizational survival is examined with the data of Istanbul Chamber of Commerce. The historical data used in the analysis ranges from years 1902 to 2005. First, the data are grouped into 32 districts that are listed in Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. The mean survival times are given for each district. The significance of the statistical difference between the survival functions for the organizational locations is tested with Log Rank test. According to the chi-square value calculated, with 95% of confidence the difference between organizational survival funtions is significant. This fact allows us to claim that the organizational location is an organizational factor that affected organizational survival of the firms registered at Istanbul Chamber of Commerce. Next, we wanted to calculate the relative effects of organizational location on organizational survival. Therefore, using cox proportional hazards method, we calculated the cox regression coefficients, $beta$ values, for each district. The district of Zeytinburnu was chosen to be the refence district. We eliminated the districts that have unsignificant $beta$ values. Within the significant β values, the smallest value was -0.357 for the district of Eminönü and the highest $beta$ value was 0.491 for district of Sultanbeyli. That means, the district of Sultanbeyli is the least suitable district for organizational survival in Istanbul whereas Eminönü is the most suitable district for organizational survival in Istanbul for the firms registered at Istanbul Chamber of Commerce. As the result, statistical evidence of liabilities of smallness is determined for Istanbul Chamber of Industry firms. Eminönü district is found to have the greatest organizational survival probability whereas Sultanbeyli district is found to have the greatest organizational mortality risk for institutional firms registered to Istanbul Chamber of Commerce.