AN INNOVATIVE APPROACH TO MANAGE UNCERTAINTIES AND STOCK DIVERSITY IN THE EPBD COST-OPTIMAL METHODOLOGY

Abstract

The EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) 2010/31/EU is astep in the right direction to promote near zero energy buildings (NZEB) in astep-wise manner, starting with minimum energy performance and costoptimal thresholds for “reference buildings” (RBs) for each category.Nevertheless, a standard method for defining RBs does not exist, which led toa great divergence between MS in the level of detail used to define RBs for theEPBD cost-optimal analysis. Such lack of harmonisation between MS isfurther evident given the resulting large discrepancies in energy performanceindicators even between countries having similar climate. Furthermore,discrepancies of 30% or higher between measured energy performance andthat derived from the EPBD software induces uncertainty in the actualoperational savings of measures leading to cost-optimality or NZEB in thesimulated environment. This research proposes a robust and innovativeframework to better handle uncertainties in the EPBD cost-optimal methodboth in the building software input parameters and in the global Life CycleCostings (LCC), making the EPBD more useful for policy makers andensuring a more harmonised approach among MS. The concept behind theproposed framework is the combination of a stochastic EPBD cost-optimalapproach with Bayesian bottom-up calibrated stock-modelling. A new conceptof “reference zoning” versus the “reference buildings” approach is alsointroduced in this research, which aims at providing a simpler and moreflexible aggregation of energy performance for the more complex commercialbuilding stock.