Estimation of Epidemiological Indicators of COVID-19 inAlgeria with an SIRD Model

Abstract

Objectives: Since the first report the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China on December 2019, enormous numberof researches are ongoing to understand its epidemiological characteristics. One of the most important tools used tounderstand the epidemic curve and to predict its dynamic are epidemiological and statistical/mathematical models. Methods: We used an SIR (Suspected-Infected-Recovered-Deceased) model to estimate the coefficients of infection,recovery and death, the reproduction number, the specific time of contact, the rate of recovery to the rate of death andthe basic reproduction number and the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Algeria. Results: According to the estimation of the SIRD model the peak of the epidemic will be reached on August-Septemberin Algeria. The coefficient of infection, recovery and death are estimated at 0.1655, 0.1077 and 0.0035 (day-1) respectively. The basic reproduction value is 1.4876. The specific time of contact is estimated at 6.0423 days and the rate ofrecovery to the rate of death is estimated at 30.4183. Conclusion: These results could contribute in the epidemiological characterization of COVID-19 in Algeria which willbe helpful for the Algerian Authorities in the anti-COVID-19 battle. Results highlight also the role of the SIRD model inthe study of COVID-19 dynamics.