Turizm Tarihinin Kaynakları - 4

Özet

Anatolia’nın bu sayısında arşivler ve seyahatnamelerle ilgili yazılarımızın dördüncüsündeyiz. Köşemizin dördüncü yazısında Tapu Kadastro Genel Müdürlüğü Arşivine, 15. yüzyıl seyyahları ve onların kaleme aldığı seyahatnamelere kapı aralayacağız.

Abstract

Tourism is one of the most important income sources of Turkiye. Therefore, determining the probable tourism for the country in future is critical for the distribution and planning of resources, determination of right price policies and selection of appropriate marketing techniques. In this respect, this study aims to estimate the tourism demand for Turkey in the period of October 2021 and September 2022 (2021:10 – 2022:09). The dataset included the number of tourists coming to Turkiye between 1990:01 - 2021:09 as proxy variable to predict the tourism demand. Two models of Box-Jenkins method namely ARIMA (integrated autoregressive moving average model) and SARIMA (seasonally integrated autoregressive moving average model) models were applied to estimate the expected tourism demand in the stated period. The study reveals that the model with the best fit is the SARIMA (2,1,2)(2,1,0) model. The study also offers a forecast for the coming 12-month period.