System Dynamics Modeling in International Relations

Abstract

This article provides an introduction to system dynamics modeling with a particularfocus on the use of system dynamics models in political science and internationalrelations. A system dynamics approach offers an alternative to traditionalqualitative and quantitative methods by providing a dynamic and endogenouspoint of view, which allows for understanding the dynamic interactions betweenvariables and making short- and long-term projections for alternative policychoices. This approach is particularly useful to tackle the complex problems ofcontemporary politics, in which the solutions require combining the insights fromdifferent disciplines. Applications of a system dynamics approach in the socialsciences cover a broad spectrum, from war initiation and termination to socialinequality, from demographics to human development and democratization. Thisarticle starts by presenting the brief history of system dynamics models and theiruse in social sciences, and comparing a system dynamics approach to traditionalqualitative and quantitative research methods by discussing the advantages anddisadvantages of each one. This discussion is followed by the explanation of theessential components of system dynamics models. Finally, the article providesseveral applications from international relations via developing models of armsraces and spread of intrastate conflicts.